Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC preview
In the Super League 1 fixture between Atromitos and AEK Athens FC, the 1X2 probabilities show AEK Athens FC at 65% and Atromitos at just 13%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 12% chance. AEK Athens FC has shown strong recent form, winning 5 of their last 6 matches, while Atromitos has struggled with 3 losses in their last 5 games.
The model suggests a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score. Atromitos has an expected goals figure of 0.78, significantly lower than AEK Athens FC's 2.10. If Atromitos can improve their attacking performance, they may challenge the predicted outcome.
Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC: model vs market
| Source | Atromitos | Draw | AEK Athens FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 21% | 67% |
| Market | 12% | 22% | 66% |
| Published | 12% | 21% | 66% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AEK Athens FC, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atromitos | 8.00 | 7.50 | -0.50 |
| Draw | 4.45 | 4.33 | -0.12 |
| AEK Athens FC | 1.37 | 1.41 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atromitos and AEK Athens FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.88
- Attack rating (Atromitos / AEK Athens FC)
- 1.03 / 1.83
- Defence rating (Atromitos / AEK Athens FC)
- 1.02 / 0.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atromitos goals. Columns: AEK Athens FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atromitos | 12% | 8.13 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.66 | |
| AEK Athens FC | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.06 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atromitos or draw) | 34% | 2.96 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or AEK Athens FC) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Athens FC win by 2+ | 43% | 2.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Atromitos and AEK Athens FC recent form
Atromitos
1W 2D 3L
AEK Athens FC
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atromitos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AEK Athens FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atromitos at home only, AEK Athens FC away only.
Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Atromitos 0 · draws 1 · AEK Athens FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Atromitos | 2-2 | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 |
| 2025-12-07 | AEK Athens FC | 4-1 | Atromitos | Super League 1 |
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Before and after this match
- Atromitos, previous: Asteras Tripolis – Atromitos, 2026-10-10
- Atromitos, next: Volos NFC vs Atromitos: odds and pick
- AEK Athens FC, previous: Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC: odds and pick
- AEK Athens FC, next: Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC prediction