Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League fixture between Kairat Almaty and Panathinaikos, the 1X2 probabilities show Panathinaikos at 41%, compared to Kairat Almaty's 27%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, with a 13% chance. Kairat Almaty has an expected goals figure of 0.92, while Panathinaikos stands at 1.21, indicating a stronger attacking potential for the visitors.
However, there are factors that could influence the outcome. The recent form shows Kairat Almaty with three wins in their last five matches, while Panathinaikos has won all of their last six games. Additionally, both teams to score has a probability of 44%, which suggests that Kairat Almaty could find the net despite the odds.
Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos: model vs market
| Source | Kairat Almaty | Draw | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 32% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 32% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kairat Almaty and Panathinaikos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.13
- Attack rating (Kairat Almaty / Panathinaikos)
- 0.92 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Kairat Almaty / Panathinaikos)
- 0.86 / 0.61
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kairat Almaty goals. Columns: Panathinaikos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kairat Almaty | 27% | 3.74 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Panathinaikos | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.30 |
| No | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kairat Almaty or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Panathinaikos) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Panathinaikos win by 2+ | 19% | 5.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kairat Almaty and Panathinaikos recent form
Kairat Almaty
4W 0D 2L
Panathinaikos
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Panathinaikos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kairat Almaty at home only, Panathinaikos away only.
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Before and after this match
- Kairat Almaty, previous: Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh: odds and pick
- Panathinaikos, previous: Panathinaikos – Asteras Tripolis, 2026-10-18
- Panathinaikos, next: Panathinaikos v Aris Thessalonikis analysis