Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh preview
Kairat Almaty faces Irtysh with a 51% probability of winning compared to Irtysh's 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 13% of the time in our model. Kairat Almaty has shown strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Irtysh has struggled, winning only 3 of their last 6.
The model suggests a 42% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score. Kairat Almaty is expected to score 1.50 goals, while Irtysh is projected at 0.87. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh: model vs market
| Source | Kairat Almaty | Draw | Irtysh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 29% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 29% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet). Best available price on the pick: 1.36, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kairat Almaty, 8 snapshots since 2026-08-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kairat Almaty | 1.34 | 1.34 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.00 |
| Irtysh | 7.60 | 7.60 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kairat Almaty and Irtysh expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.26
- Attack rating (Kairat Almaty / Irtysh)
- 0.98 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Kairat Almaty / Irtysh)
- 0.91 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kairat Almaty goals. Columns: Irtysh goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kairat Almaty | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Irtysh | 19% | 5.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.31 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kairat Almaty or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Irtysh) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kairat Almaty win by 2+ | 27% | 3.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kairat Almaty and Irtysh recent form
Kairat Almaty
4W 0D 2L
Irtysh
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kairat Almaty at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-1
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 2.15
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 13
- They have won 17 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
Irtysh away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-6
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kairat Almaty at home only, Irtysh away only.
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Kairat Almaty 1 · draws 0 · Irtysh 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Irtysh | 0-1 | Kairat Almaty | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
- Okzhetpes v Kyzyl-Zhar — match page 2026-10-17
- Zhetysu vs Kaisar — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- FK Tobol Kostanay v Zhenys — match page 2026-10-17
- Aktobe vs Ordabasy — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Altay vs Atyrau 2026-10-18
- Yelimay Semey v Ulytau — match page 2026-10-18
- FC Astana vs Kaspiy 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Kairat Almaty, previous: Riga vs Kairat Almaty: odds and pick
- Kairat Almaty, next: Kairat Almaty – Panathinaikos, 2026-10-22
- Irtysh, previous: Irtysh – FC Astana, 2026-10-14