FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys preview
FK Tobol Kostanay faces Zhenys with a 56% probability of winning, while Zhenys has a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% likelihood. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 57%, indicating potential for an open match.
FK Tobol Kostanay's expected goals are 1.91, compared to Zhenys' 1.06. Recent form shows FK Tobol Kostanay with three wins in their last six matches, while Zhenys has won only two in the same period. The head-to-head record shows FK Tobol Kostanay has not won in their last three encounters, with 2 draws and 1 loss. This could impact their confidence going into the match.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys: model vs market
| Source | FK Tobol Kostanay | Draw | Zhenys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Published | 49% | 27% | 23% |
| Edge | +8% | -4% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FK Tobol Kostanay below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FK Tobol Kostanay, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Tobol Kostanay | 2.00 | 1.95 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.30 | +0.10 |
| Zhenys | 3.55 | 3.75 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FK Tobol Kostanay and Zhenys expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (FK Tobol Kostanay / Zhenys)
- 1.17 / 0.93
- Defence rating (FK Tobol Kostanay / Zhenys)
- 1.00 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Tobol Kostanay goals. Columns: Zhenys goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 49% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Zhenys | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Tobol Kostanay or draw) | 77% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Zhenys) | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Tobol Kostanay win by 2+ | 33% | 3.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FK Tobol Kostanay and Zhenys recent form
FK Tobol Kostanay
4W 0D 2L
Zhenys
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Tobol Kostanay at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-2
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Zhenys away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-8
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 0.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Tobol Kostanay at home only, Zhenys away only.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: FK Tobol Kostanay 1 · draws 4 · Zhenys 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Zhenys | 1-0 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-08-29 | Zhenys | 1-1 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Cup |
| 2025-06-29 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 2-2 | Zhenys | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-06-25 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 2-1 | Zhenys | Cup |
| 2025-03-08 | Zhenys | 0-0 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2024-10-04 | Zhenys | 2-1 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
| 2024-04-27 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 1-1 | Zhenys | Premier League |
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
- Okzhetpes v Kyzyl-Zhar — match page 2026-10-17
- Zhetysu vs Kaisar — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Aktobe vs Ordabasy — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Altay vs Atyrau 2026-10-18
- Yelimay Semey v Ulytau — match page 2026-10-18
- Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- FC Astana vs Kaspiy 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- FK Tobol Kostanay, previous: FK Tobol Kostanay – FC Astana, 2026-10-10
- Zhenys, previous: Zhenys – Atyrau, 2026-10-10