Aktobe vs Ordabasy preview
In the fixture between Aktobe and Ordabasy, the 1X2 probabilities show Aktobe at 26%, a draw at 26%, and Ordabasy at 48%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score has a 59% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 56%.
Aktobe's expected goals are 1.23, while Ordabasy's are higher at 1.71. Aktobe's recent form includes 4 wins and 2 draws, while Ordabasy has 5 wins and 1 loss. In their last 3 meetings, Aktobe has not secured a win, with 2 draws and 1 loss to Ordabasy. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Aktobe vs Ordabasy: model vs market
| Source | Aktobe | Draw | Ordabasy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 25% | 51% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Published | 29% | 28% | 44% |
| Edge | -5% | -4% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ordabasy below the model: +9.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Aktobe vs Ordabasy odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ordabasy, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktobe | 3.20 | 3.05 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.22 | -0.08 |
| Ordabasy | 2.12 | 2.22 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aktobe and Ordabasy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Aktobe / Ordabasy)
- 1.32 / 1.64
- Defence rating (Aktobe / Ordabasy)
- 1.00 / 0.65
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aktobe vs Ordabasy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aktobe goals. Columns: Ordabasy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aktobe vs Ordabasy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aktobe vs Ordabasy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aktobe | 29% | 3.48 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Ordabasy | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aktobe or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Ordabasy) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ordabasy win by 2+ | 29% | 3.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aktobe and Ordabasy recent form
Aktobe
4W 1D 1L
Ordabasy
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aktobe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-1
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 0.77
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ordabasy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.08
- Goals against / match
- 0.85
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 13
- They have won 20 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aktobe at home only, Ordabasy away only.
Aktobe vs Ordabasy head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Aktobe 3 · draws 6 · Ordabasy 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Ordabasy | 2-0 | Aktobe | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-10-26 | Aktobe | 2-2 | Ordabasy | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-03-01 | Ordabasy | 0-0 | Aktobe | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2024-08-25 | Ordabasy | 1-1 | Aktobe | Premier League |
| 2024-05-18 | Aktobe | 0-0 | Ordabasy | Premier League |
| 2024-05-08 | Ordabasy | 1-2 | Aktobe | Cup |
| 2023-09-16 | Aktobe | 2-1 | Ordabasy | Premier League |
| 2023-04-09 | Ordabasy | 1-1 | Aktobe | Premier League |
| 2022-10-29 | Ordabasy | 2-2 | Aktobe | Premier League |
| 2022-08-21 | Aktobe | 3-1 | Ordabasy | Premier League |
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
- Okzhetpes v Kyzyl-Zhar — match page 2026-10-17
- Zhetysu vs Kaisar — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- FK Tobol Kostanay v Zhenys — match page 2026-10-17
- Altay vs Atyrau 2026-10-18
- Yelimay Semey v Ulytau — match page 2026-10-18
- Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- FC Astana vs Kaspiy 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Aktobe, previous: Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe: odds and pick
- Ordabasy, previous: Kaisar vs Ordabasy: odds and pick