Altay vs Atyrau preview
In the Kazakhstan Premier League fixture between Altay and Atyrau, the 1X2 probabilities show Altay at 51%, Atyrau at 23%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% probability.
Both teams to score stands at 56%, while Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 54%. Altay's expected goals are 1.74 compared to Atyrau's 1.11. Recent form shows Altay with two losses and one win in their last six matches, while Atyrau has three losses and two wins. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.
Altay vs Atyrau: model vs market
| Source | Altay | Draw | Atyrau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.12.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Altay and Atyrau expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (Altay / Atyrau)
- 1.04 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Altay / Atyrau)
- 1.31 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Altay vs Atyrau score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Altay goals. Columns: Atyrau goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Altay vs Atyrau goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Altay vs Atyrau
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Altay | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Atyrau | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Altay or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Atyrau) | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Altay win by 2+ | 30% | 3.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Altay and Atyrau recent form
Altay
2W 0D 4L
Atyrau
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Altay at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-6-5
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atyrau away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-4
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 0.77
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Altay at home only, Atyrau away only.
Altay vs Atyrau head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Altay 0 · draws 0 · Atyrau 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Atyrau | 1-0 | Altay | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
- Okzhetpes v Kyzyl-Zhar — match page 2026-10-17
- Zhetysu vs Kaisar — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- FK Tobol Kostanay v Zhenys — match page 2026-10-17
- Aktobe vs Ordabasy — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Yelimay Semey v Ulytau — match page 2026-10-18
- Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- FC Astana vs Kaspiy 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Altay, previous: Kaspiy v Altay analysis
- Atyrau, previous: Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey prediction