FC Astana vs Kaspiy preview
In the upcoming match between FC Astana and Kaspiy, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Astana at 62%, while Kaspiy stands at 15%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, with a 10% chance. FC Astana has an expected goals figure of 1.88 compared to Kaspiy's 0.97, suggesting a strong offensive performance from the home side.
However, Kaspiy's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 5 matches, which could challenge Astana's dominance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 54%, indicating a potential for a more open game. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
FC Astana vs Kaspiy: model vs market
| Source | FC Astana | Draw | Kaspiy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Published | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Edge | -5% | +1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.51, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Astana vs Kaspiy odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Astana, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Astana | 1.50 | 1.45 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.95 | +0.05 |
| Kaspiy | 5.55 | 6.70 | +1.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Astana and Kaspiy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (FC Astana / Kaspiy)
- 1.21 / 1.06
- Defence rating (FC Astana / Kaspiy)
- 0.80 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Astana vs Kaspiy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Astana goals. Columns: Kaspiy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Astana vs Kaspiy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Astana vs Kaspiy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Astana | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Kaspiy | 15% | 6.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Astana or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Kaspiy) | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Astana win by 2+ | 35% | 2.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Astana and Kaspiy recent form
FC Astana
4W 0D 2L
Kaspiy
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Astana at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-1-0
- Win rate
- 92%
- Goals for / match
- 2.38
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 13
- They have won 14 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Kaspiy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-8
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 0.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Astana at home only, Kaspiy away only.
FC Astana vs Kaspiy head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: FC Astana 0 · draws 0 · Kaspiy 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Kaspiy | 1-0 | FC Astana | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
- Okzhetpes v Kyzyl-Zhar — match page 2026-10-17
- Zhetysu vs Kaisar — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- FK Tobol Kostanay v Zhenys — match page 2026-10-17
- Aktobe vs Ordabasy — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Altay vs Atyrau 2026-10-18
- Yelimay Semey v Ulytau — match page 2026-10-18
- Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- FC Astana, previous: Irtysh – FC Astana, 2026-10-14
- Kaspiy, previous: Kaspiy v Altay analysis