Yelimay Semey vs Ulytau preview
In the match between Yelimay Semey and Ulytau, the 1X2 probabilities show Yelimay Semey at 44%, while Ulytau stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time in our model. The expectation for Over 2.5 goals is at 52%, and both teams to score sits at 56%.
Yelimay Semey's recent form is L-W-W-L-L-D, while Ulytau has W-D-L-L-W-L. The expected goals are 1.54 for Yelimay Semey and 1.21 for Ulytau. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. These factors could lead to a different outcome than predicted, especially if either team improves their form or if defensive errors occur.
Yelimay Semey vs Ulytau: model vs market
| Source | Yelimay Semey | Draw | Ulytau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market | 52% | 27% | 22% |
| Published | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Yelimay Semey vs Ulytau odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Yelimay Semey, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yelimay Semey | 1.85 | 1.78 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.45 | +0.05 |
| Ulytau | 3.90 | 4.20 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Yelimay Semey and Ulytau expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Yelimay Semey / Ulytau)
- 1.01 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Yelimay Semey / Ulytau)
- 1.11 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Yelimay Semey vs Ulytau score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Yelimay Semey goals. Columns: Ulytau goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Yelimay Semey vs Ulytau goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Yelimay Semey vs Ulytau
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yelimay Semey | 50% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Ulytau | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.77 |
| No | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Yelimay Semey or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Ulytau) | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Yelimay Semey win by 2+ | 25% | 3.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Yelimay Semey and Ulytau recent form
Yelimay Semey
3W 0D 3L
Ulytau
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Yelimay Semey at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ulytau away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-6-6
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 0.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.54
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Yelimay Semey at home only, Ulytau away only.
Yelimay Semey vs Ulytau head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Yelimay Semey 1 · draws 1 · Ulytau 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Ulytau | 1-0 | Yelimay Semey | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-07-12 | Ulytau | 1-1 | Yelimay Semey | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-04-06 | Yelimay Semey | 3-0 | Ulytau | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
- Okzhetpes v Kyzyl-Zhar — match page 2026-10-17
- Zhetysu vs Kaisar — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- FK Tobol Kostanay v Zhenys — match page 2026-10-17
- Aktobe vs Ordabasy — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Altay vs Atyrau 2026-10-18
- Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- FC Astana vs Kaspiy 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Yelimay Semey, previous: Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey prediction
- Ulytau, previous: Ulytau v Okzhetpes analysis