PAOK II vs Apollon Pontou Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

PAOK II vs Apollon Pontou preview

In the Super League 2 fixture between PAOK II and Apollon Pontou, the 1X2 probabilities show PAOK II at 37% to win, while Apollon Pontou sits at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 16% chance according to our model.

While PAOK II has an expected goals figure of 0.97, Apollon Pontou has a lower expected goals of 0.78. This suggests a tight match, but the 26% chance of Over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score indicate that scoring might be limited. A draw is also a possibility, with a 36% probability.

PAOK II vs Apollon Pontou: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	PAOK II	Draw	Apollon Pontou
Model	37%	36%	27%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	36%	27%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

PAOK II and Apollon Pontou expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.96PAOK II

0.78Apollon Pontou

Total expected goals: 1.75
Attack rating (PAOK II / Apollon Pontou): 0.90 / 0.80
Defence rating (PAOK II / Apollon Pontou): 1.04 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

PAOK II vs Apollon Pontou score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 18.7% 12.3% 5.3% 1.4% 0.3% 1 15.5% 14.5% 5.2% 1.3% 0.3% 2 8.1% 6.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 3 2.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: PAOK II goals. Columns: Apollon Pontou goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

PAOK II vs Apollon Pontou goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 81%

Over 1.5 53%

Over 2.5 26%

Over 3.5 10%

Both teams to score: 35%
No goals (0–0): 19%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for PAOK II vs Apollon Pontou

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	PAOK II	37%	2.70
	Draw	36%	2.79
	Apollon Pontou	27%	3.70
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	26%	3.91
	Under 2.5	74%	1.34
Both teams to score	Yes	35%	2.86
	No	65%	1.54
Double chance	1X (PAOK II or draw)	73%	1.37
	12 (either side)	64%	1.56
	X2 (draw or Apollon Pontou)	63%	1.59
Handicap -1	PAOK II win by 2+	14%	6.96
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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