Larisa vs Panserraikos preview
In the Super League 2 fixture between Larisa and Panserraikos, the 1X2 probabilities show Larisa at 50%, while Panserraikos sits at 23%. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-0 for Larisa, with an expected goals tally of 2.48 for Larisa compared to 0.98 for Panserraikos.
The model also indicates a 67% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score. However, recent form reveals Larisa's last five matches include 3 wins, while Panserraikos has 3 wins in their last five. This recent performance could influence the match outcome, making the predictions less certain.
Larisa vs Panserraikos: model vs market
| Source | Larisa | Draw | Panserraikos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 18% | 12% |
| Market | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Published | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Edge | +26% | -11% | -15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 0.98.
- The market prices Larisa below the model: +25.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Larisa vs Panserraikos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Larisa, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larisa | 2.00 | 2.10 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.08 | -0.02 |
| Panserraikos | 3.54 | 3.38 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Larisa and Panserraikos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (Larisa / Panserraikos)
- 1.27 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Larisa / Panserraikos)
- 0.96 / 1.48
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Larisa vs Panserraikos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Larisa goals. Columns: Panserraikos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Larisa vs Panserraikos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Larisa vs Panserraikos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larisa | 50% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Panserraikos | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Larisa or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Panserraikos) | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | Larisa win by 2+ | 48% | 2.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Larisa and Panserraikos recent form
Larisa
3W 2D 1L
Panserraikos
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Larisa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
Panserraikos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
League matches this season before kick-off: Larisa at home only, Panserraikos away only.
Larisa vs Panserraikos head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Larisa 2 · draws 1 · Panserraikos 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Panserraikos | 1-1 | Larisa | Super League 1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Larisa | 0-1 | Panserraikos | Super League 1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Larisa | 1-0 | Panserraikos | Super League 1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Panserraikos | 0-2 | Larisa | Super League 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Asteras Tripolis II v Zakynthos — match page 2026-10-17
- Marko vs Ellas Syros — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Panthrakikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus II — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Nestos Chrisoupolis v Kallithea — match page 2026-10-18
- Pyrgos 1968 vs Anagennisi Karditsas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Niki Volos vs Panionios 2026-10-18
- PAOK II vs Apollon Pontou 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Larisa, previous: Marko vs Larisa prediction
- Larisa, next: Larisa vs OFI prediction
- Panserraikos, previous: Panserraikos – Nestos Chrisoupolis, 2026-10-10
- Panserraikos, next: Panserraikos v Niki Volos analysis