Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest preview
In the match between Ferencvarosi TC and MTK Budapest, the 1X2 probabilities show Ferencvarosi TC at 57%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 (11%). The expected goals also suggest a strong advantage for Ferencvarosi TC at 1.78 compared to MTK Budapest's 0.89.
However, MTK Budapest's recent form includes 2 wins in their last 6 matches, which could lead to an unexpected result. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 50%, indicating potential for more goals if MTK can improve their attacking play. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest: model vs market
| Source | Ferencvarosi TC | Draw | MTK Budapest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 57% | 25% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.89.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ferencvarosi TC and MTK Budapest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.67
- Attack rating (Ferencvarosi TC / MTK Budapest)
- 1.10 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Ferencvarosi TC / MTK Budapest)
- 0.66 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ferencvarosi TC goals. Columns: MTK Budapest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ferencvarosi TC | 57% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| MTK Budapest | 17% | 5.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ferencvarosi TC or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or MTK Budapest) | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ferencvarosi TC win by 2+ | 33% | 2.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ferencvarosi TC and MTK Budapest recent form
Ferencvarosi TC
2W 4D 0L
MTK Budapest
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ferencvarosi TC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MTK Budapest away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ferencvarosi TC at home only, MTK Budapest away only.
Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ferencvarosi TC 2 · draws 1 · MTK Budapest 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | MTK Budapest | 1-3 | Ferencvarosi TC | NB I |
| 2025-11-01 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4-1 | MTK Budapest | NB I |
| 2025-07-26 | MTK Budapest | 1-1 | Ferencvarosi TC | NB I |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Budapest Honved vs Debreceni VSC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Vasas v Paks — match page 2026-10-24
- Puskas Academy vs Nyiregyhaza — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Gyori ETO FC vs Ujpest 2026-10-24
- Zalaegerszegi TE v Kisvarda FC — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Ferencvarosi TC, previous: Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense prediction
- Ferencvarosi TC, next: AC Milan v Ferencvarosi TC analysis
- MTK Budapest, previous: MTK Budapest v Vasas analysis