Vasas vs Paks preview
In the fixture between Vasas and Paks, the 1X2 probabilities show Vasas at 42%, Paks at 34%, and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance according to our model. Both teams to score stands at 69%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 68%.
Vasas has an expected goals figure of 1.85, while Paks sits at 1.67. Recent form indicates Vasas has struggled with a record of L-D-W-W-L-L, whereas Paks has shown more consistency with W-W-L-D-W-L. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. Factors such as goalkeeping performances or defensive errors could influence the match's result.
Vasas vs Paks: model vs market
| Source | Vasas | Draw | Paks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.60.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Vasas and Paks expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Vasas / Paks)
- 1.10 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Vasas / Paks)
- 0.93 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vasas vs Paks score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vasas goals. Columns: Paks goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vasas vs Paks goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vasas vs Paks
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasas | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Paks | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vasas or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Paks) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasas win by 2+ | 26% | 3.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Vasas and Paks recent form
Vasas
2W 1D 3L
Paks
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vasas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paks away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vasas at home only, Paks away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Budapest Honved vs Debreceni VSC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest 2026-10-24
- Puskas Academy vs Nyiregyhaza — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Gyori ETO FC vs Ujpest 2026-10-24
- Zalaegerszegi TE v Kisvarda FC — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Vasas, previous: MTK Budapest v Vasas analysis
- Paks, previous: Paks vs Gyori ETO FC: odds and pick