Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE preview
In the upcoming match between Paks and Zalaegerszegi TE, the 1X2 probabilities show Paks at 62% to win, while Zalaegerszegi TE has an 18% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Paks has a strong expected goals figure of 2.35 compared to Zalaegerszegi TE's 1.22, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, recent form could complicate matters. Paks has alternated wins and losses in their last six matches, while Zalaegerszegi TE has struggled, recording only 1 win in their last six games. Additionally, Zalaegerszegi TE has a better head-to-head record, with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 4 encounters against Paks.
Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE: model vs market
| Source | Paks | Draw | Zalaegerszegi TE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Market | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Published | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.35.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paks, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paks | 1.75 | 1.80 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.87 | 3.84 | -0.03 |
| Zalaegerszegi TE | 3.80 | 3.62 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Paks and Zalaegerszegi TE expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Paks / Zalaegerszegi TE)
- 1.08 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Paks / Zalaegerszegi TE)
- 1.02 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Paks goals. Columns: Zalaegerszegi TE goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paks | 50% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Zalaegerszegi TE | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Paks or draw) | 74% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Zalaegerszegi TE) | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paks win by 2+ | 28% | 3.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Paks and Zalaegerszegi TE recent form
Paks
3W 0D 3L
Zalaegerszegi TE
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Paks at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zalaegerszegi TE away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-6
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Paks at home only, Zalaegerszegi TE away only.
Paks vs Zalaegerszegi TE head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Paks 1 · draws 5 · Zalaegerszegi TE 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 5-2 | Paks | NB I |
| 2026-03-14 | Paks | 1-1 | Zalaegerszegi TE | NB I |
| 2025-11-29 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 1-0 | Paks | NB I |
| 2025-08-17 | Paks | 2-2 | Zalaegerszegi TE | NB I |
| 2025-04-22 | Paks | 2-1 | Zalaegerszegi TE | Magyar Kupa |
| 2025-03-29 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 1-1 | Paks | NB I |
| 2024-11-24 | Paks | 2-2 | Zalaegerszegi TE | NB I |
| 2024-08-10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 3-1 | Paks | NB I |
| 2024-05-11 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 1-1 | Paks | NB I |
| 2024-02-16 | Paks | 3-4 | Zalaegerszegi TE | NB I |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved 2026-11-07
- Kisvarda FC vs Puskas Academy — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Nyiregyhaza v Gyori ETO FC — match page 2026-11-08
- Debreceni VSC v Ujpest — match page 2026-11-08
- Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Paks, previous: Ferencvarosi TC vs Paks: odds and pick
- Zalaegerszegi TE, previous: Zalaegerszegi TE vs MTK Budapest: odds and pick