Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC preview
Vasas face Ferencvarosi TC with a 19% chance of winning compared to 59% for Ferencvarosi TC. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with expected goals of 0.95 for Vasas and 2.06 for Ferencvarosi TC. The model suggests a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 54%.
However, Vasas' recent form shows 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Ferencvarosi TC has 4 wins in the same period. This discrepancy in form could influence the outcome, making the predictions less reliable. With a confidence grade of C, there is room for unexpected results in this match.
Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC: model vs market
| Source | Vasas | Draw | Ferencvarosi TC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 22% | 64% |
| Market | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Published | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ferencvarosi TC below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ferencvarosi TC, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vasas | 4.53 | 4.22 | -0.31 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 3.95 | -0.30 |
| Ferencvarosi TC | 1.60 | 1.67 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vasas and Ferencvarosi TC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (Vasas / Ferencvarosi TC)
- 1.02 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Vasas / Ferencvarosi TC)
- 1.01 / 0.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vasas goals. Columns: Ferencvarosi TC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasas | 20% | 5.06 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Ferencvarosi TC | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vasas or draw) | 43% | 2.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Ferencvarosi TC) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ferencvarosi TC win by 2+ | 41% | 2.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vasas and Ferencvarosi TC recent form
Vasas
2W 2D 2L
Ferencvarosi TC
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vasas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ferencvarosi TC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vasas at home only, Ferencvarosi TC away only.
Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Vasas 0 · draws 1 · Ferencvarosi TC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Ferencvarosi TC | 0-0 | Vasas | NB I |
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Before and after this match
- Vasas, previous: Gyori ETO FC v Vasas analysis
- Ferencvarosi TC, previous: AC Milan v Ferencvarosi TC analysis
- Ferencvarosi TC, next: Ferencvarosi TC vs Celje: odds and pick