MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved preview
In the match between MTK Budapest and Budapest Honved, the 1X2 probabilities show MTK Budapest at 39%, while Budapest Honved is at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% chance. MTK Budapest has struggled recently, losing 5 of their last 6 matches, while Budapest Honved has a mixed form with 2 wins in their last 6 games.
The expected goals indicate MTK Budapest at 1.16 and Budapest Honved at 1.55, suggesting a competitive match. The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. However, if MTK Budapest's recent poor form continues, it could affect the outcome significantly.
MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved: model vs market
| Source | MTK Budapest | Draw | Budapest Honved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved odds movement
Median bookmaker price on MTK Budapest, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTK Budapest | 2.15 | 2.20 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.32 | -0.04 |
| Budapest Honved | 3.09 | 2.99 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
MTK Budapest and Budapest Honved expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (MTK Budapest / Budapest Honved)
- 0.76 / 0.83
- Defence rating (MTK Budapest / Budapest Honved)
- 1.33 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: MTK Budapest goals. Columns: Budapest Honved goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MTK Budapest | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Budapest Honved | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (MTK Budapest or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Budapest Honved) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | MTK Budapest win by 2+ | 11% | 8.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
MTK Budapest and Budapest Honved recent form
MTK Budapest
1W 0D 5L
Budapest Honved
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
MTK Budapest at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Budapest Honved away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: MTK Budapest at home only, Budapest Honved away only.
MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: MTK Budapest 4 · draws 4 · Budapest Honved 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Budapest Honved | 3-3 | MTK Budapest | NB I |
| 2024-07-13 | MTK Budapest | 4-3 | Budapest Honved | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-01-24 | MTK Budapest | 1-1 | Budapest Honved | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-03-12 | MTK Budapest | 1-0 | Budapest Honved | NB I |
| 2021-11-21 | Budapest Honved | 3-0 | MTK Budapest | NB I |
| 2021-08-07 | MTK Budapest | 1-0 | Budapest Honved | NB I |
| 2021-03-02 | Budapest Honved | 3-2 | MTK Budapest | NB I |
| 2020-12-06 | Budapest Honved | 2-2 | MTK Budapest | NB I |
| 2020-08-21 | MTK Budapest | 3-1 | Budapest Honved | NB I |
| 2020-05-26 | Budapest Honved | 0-0 | MTK Budapest | Magyar Kupa |
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Before and after this match
- MTK Budapest, previous: Zalaegerszegi TE vs MTK Budapest: odds and pick
- Budapest Honved, previous: Budapest Honved v Kisvarda FC analysis