Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv preview
In the Ligat Ha'al fixture between Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Tel Aviv, the probabilities show Hapoel Beer Sheva at 35% to win, while Hapoel Tel Aviv stands at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.26 for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.96 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Both teams have shown strong recent form, with Hapoel Tel Aviv winning 4 of their last 5 matches, compared to Hapoel Beer Sheva's mixed results of 3 wins in 6. The model suggests a 62% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance for both teams to score. However, unexpected performances or defensive errors could alter these outcomes.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv: model vs market
| Source | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Draw | Hapoel Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 33% |
| Published | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Edge | -5% | -1% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Hapoel Tel Aviv below our published probability: +6.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.91, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +14.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hapoel Tel Aviv, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.35 | +0.00 |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 2.76 | 2.72 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Tel Aviv expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.17
- Attack rating (Hapoel Beer Sheva / Hapoel Tel Aviv)
- 1.22 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Hapoel Beer Sheva / Hapoel Tel Aviv)
- 1.13 / 0.61
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hapoel Beer Sheva goals. Columns: Hapoel Tel Aviv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 35% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw) | 61% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hapoel Tel Aviv win by 2+ | 35% | 2.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Tel Aviv recent form
Hapoel Beer Sheva
3W 0D 3L
Hapoel Tel Aviv
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hapoel Beer Sheva at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hapoel Tel Aviv away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hapoel Beer Sheva at home only, Hapoel Tel Aviv away only.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Hapoel Beer Sheva 3 · draws 0 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 0-2 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2026-05-02 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2-0 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2026-01-19 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 2-1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2025-10-04 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2-1 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Petah Tikva 2026-11-06
- Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Ramat Gan 2026-11-07
- Maccabi Haifa v Maccabi Netanya — match page 2026-11-07
- Hapoel Katamon vs Bnei Sakhnin — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Hapoel Haifa — match page 2026-11-07
- Ironi Tiberias vs Beitar Jerusalem — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Hapoel Beer Sheva, previous: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI prediction
- Hapoel Beer Sheva, next: Beşiktaş vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: odds and pick
- Hapoel Tel Aviv, previous: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa prediction