Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa preview
Hapoel Tel Aviv faces Maccabi Haifa with a 49% chance of winning compared to 26% for Maccabi Haifa. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Hapoel's expected goals of 1.79 and Maccabi's 1.27. There is a 59% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score.
However, Hapoel Tel Aviv's recent form shows a mix of results, including one loss in their last six matches. Maccabi Haifa also has a strong recent record, winning four of their last five. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa: model vs market
| Source | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Draw | Maccabi Haifa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.27.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Hapoel Tel Aviv and Maccabi Haifa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.06
- Attack rating (Hapoel Tel Aviv / Maccabi Haifa)
- 1.23 / 1.52
- Defence rating (Hapoel Tel Aviv / Maccabi Haifa)
- 0.59 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hapoel Tel Aviv goals. Columns: Maccabi Haifa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 48% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Maccabi Haifa | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Maccabi Haifa) | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hapoel Tel Aviv win by 2+ | 27% | 3.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Hapoel Tel Aviv and Maccabi Haifa recent form
Hapoel Tel Aviv
5W 0D 1L
Maccabi Haifa
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hapoel Tel Aviv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Maccabi Haifa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Hapoel Tel Aviv at home only, Maccabi Haifa away only.
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Hapoel Tel Aviv 2 · draws 0 · Maccabi Haifa 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Maccabi Haifa | 4-1 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2026-04-29 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 4-0 | Maccabi Haifa | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2026-04-06 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 2-0 | Maccabi Haifa | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2025-12-02 | Maccabi Haifa | 2-1 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Beitar Jerusalem v Ironi Kiryat Shmona — match page 2026-10-31
- Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Bnei Sakhnin vs Ironi Tiberias 2026-10-31
- Hapoel Ramat Gan v Maccabi Tel Aviv — match page 2026-10-31
- Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Maccabi Netanya v Hapoel Katamon — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Hapoel Tel Aviv, previous: Hapoel Katamon v Hapoel Tel Aviv analysis
- Maccabi Haifa, previous: Maccabi Haifa – Hapoel Beer Sheva, 2026-10-26