Updated

Ligat Ha'al · Matchday 9

Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Maccabi Tel Aviv

Alin prediction Maccabi Tel Aviv to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Hapoel Ramat GanDrawMaccabi Tel Aviv
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 0.92.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Maccabi Tel Aviv preview

In the fixture between Hapoel Ramat Gan and Maccabi Tel Aviv, the 1X2 probabilities show Maccabi Tel Aviv at 70%, while Hapoel Ramat Gan sits at 11%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with Maccabi Tel Aviv's expected goals of 2.47 compared to Hapoel Ramat Gan's 0.92.

The forecast suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 56%. However, Hapoel Ramat Gan's recent form, which includes three losses in their last six matches, could impact their performance. If they manage to improve defensively, it could lead to a different outcome than expected.

Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHapoel Ramat GanDrawMaccabi Tel Aviv
Model11%18%71%
Market———
Published11%18%71%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Hapoel Ramat Gan and Maccabi Tel Aviv expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.92Hapoel Ramat Gan
2.47Maccabi Tel Aviv
Total expected goals
3.39
Attack rating (Hapoel Ramat Gan / Maccabi Tel Aviv)
0.76 / 1.54
Defence rating (Hapoel Ramat Gan / Maccabi Tel Aviv)
1.14 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Maccabi Tel Aviv score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 7.5% 10.3% 8.5% 9.4% 1 2.3% 8.4% 9.5% 7.8% 8.7% 2 1.4% 3.5% 4.3% 3.6% 4.0% 3 0.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 4+ 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

Rows: Hapoel Ramat Gan goals. Columns: Maccabi Tel Aviv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Maccabi Tel Aviv goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Maccabi Tel Aviv

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hapoel Ramat Gan11%8.89
Draw18%5.51
Maccabi Tel Aviv71%1.42
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.52
Under 2.534%2.93
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.79
No44%2.26
Double chance1X (Hapoel Ramat Gan or draw)29%3.40
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv)89%1.13
Handicap -1Maccabi Tel Aviv win by 2+49%2.03
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Hapoel Ramat Gan and Maccabi Tel Aviv recent form

Hapoel Ramat Gan 2W 0D 4L
Maccabi Tel Aviv 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hapoel Ramat Gan at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Maccabi Tel Aviv away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Hapoel Ramat Gan at home only, Maccabi Tel Aviv away only.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Maccabi Tel Aviv to win Predicted score 0 – 2 C Bet on Maccabi Tel Aviv