Hapoel Katamon vs Bnei Sakhnin preview
Hapoel Katamon faces Bnei Sakhnin with a 38% chance of winning compared to 31% for both a draw and a Bnei Sakhnin victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. Hapoel Katamon's expected goals stand at 1.10, while Bnei Sakhnin's is slightly lower at 1.06.
Recent form shows Hapoel Katamon with D-L-L-L-W-D, and Bnei Sakhnin at D-W-W-D-W-L. The model indicates a 37% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score. A low-scoring game could make the predictions less accurate, particularly if either team improves their attacking efficiency.
Hapoel Katamon vs Bnei Sakhnin: model vs market
| Source | Hapoel Katamon | Draw | Bnei Sakhnin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 32% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Hapoel Katamon vs Bnei Sakhnin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hapoel Katamon, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Katamon | 2.27 | 2.25 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.08 | 3.14 | +0.06 |
| Bnei Sakhnin | 3.17 | 3.03 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hapoel Katamon and Bnei Sakhnin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.16
- Attack rating (Hapoel Katamon / Bnei Sakhnin)
- 0.90 / 0.60
- Defence rating (Hapoel Katamon / Bnei Sakhnin)
- 1.23 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hapoel Katamon vs Bnei Sakhnin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hapoel Katamon goals. Columns: Bnei Sakhnin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hapoel Katamon vs Bnei Sakhnin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hapoel Katamon vs Bnei Sakhnin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hapoel Katamon | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Bnei Sakhnin | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hapoel Katamon or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Bnei Sakhnin) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hapoel Katamon win by 2+ | 15% | 6.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hapoel Katamon and Bnei Sakhnin recent form
Hapoel Katamon
1W 2D 3L
Bnei Sakhnin
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hapoel Katamon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 3.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bnei Sakhnin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hapoel Katamon at home only, Bnei Sakhnin away only.
Hapoel Katamon vs Bnei Sakhnin head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Hapoel Katamon 4 · draws 3 · Bnei Sakhnin 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Hapoel Katamon | 1-0 | Bnei Sakhnin | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2026-01-31 | Bnei Sakhnin | 0-0 | Hapoel Katamon | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2025-10-25 | Hapoel Katamon | 0-0 | Bnei Sakhnin | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2025-03-15 | Hapoel Katamon | 4-1 | Bnei Sakhnin | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2025-03-08 | Bnei Sakhnin | 0-2 | Hapoel Katamon | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2024-12-08 | Hapoel Katamon | 1-0 | Bnei Sakhnin | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2024-01-13 | Hapoel Katamon | 0-0 | Bnei Sakhnin | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2023-09-17 | Bnei Sakhnin | 2-1 | Hapoel Katamon | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2023-01-30 | Bnei Sakhnin | 2-1 | Hapoel Katamon | Ligat Ha'al |
| 2022-10-08 | Hapoel Katamon | 1-2 | Bnei Sakhnin | Ligat Ha'al |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Petah Tikva 2026-11-06
- Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Ramat Gan 2026-11-07
- Maccabi Haifa v Maccabi Netanya — match page 2026-11-07
- Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Hapoel Haifa — match page 2026-11-07
- Ironi Tiberias vs Beitar Jerusalem — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Hapoel Katamon, previous: Maccabi Netanya – Hapoel Katamon, 2026-10-31
- Bnei Sakhnin, previous: Bnei Sakhnin – Ironi Tiberias, 2026-10-31