FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils preview
FS Jelgava faces BFC Daugavpils with 27% chances to win compared to 41% for Daugavpils. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 14%. While both teams to score stands at 42%, the expected goals suggest a tighter match, with FS Jelgava at 0.89 and BFC Daugavpils at 1.17.
Recent form shows FS Jelgava struggling with L-L-L-D-L-W, while BFC Daugavpils has a more stable W-D-L-D-L-D record. This could mean that an upset is possible if Jelgava finds their scoring touch. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils: model vs market
| Source | FS Jelgava | Draw | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 33% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 33% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FS Jelgava and BFC Daugavpils expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.06
- Attack rating (FS Jelgava / BFC Daugavpils)
- 0.83 / 0.81
- Defence rating (FS Jelgava / BFC Daugavpils)
- 1.13 / 0.65
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FS Jelgava goals. Columns: BFC Daugavpils goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FS Jelgava | 27% | 3.77 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.07 | |
| BFC Daugavpils | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.38 |
| No | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FS Jelgava or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or BFC Daugavpils) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | BFC Daugavpils win by 2+ | 18% | 5.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FS Jelgava and BFC Daugavpils recent form
FS Jelgava
1W 1D 4L
BFC Daugavpils
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FS Jelgava at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-10
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
BFC Daugavpils away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-6
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FS Jelgava at home only, BFC Daugavpils away only.
FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: FS Jelgava 1 · draws 2 · BFC Daugavpils 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | BFC Daugavpils | 2-1 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| 2026-05-31 | FS Jelgava | 1-1 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-16 | BFC Daugavpils | 1-0 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| 2025-10-18 | FS Jelgava | 0-0 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| 2025-07-27 | BFC Daugavpils | 2-0 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| 2025-05-25 | BFC Daugavpils | 1-0 | FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-10 | FS Jelgava | 4-1 | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- FK Liepaja vs Tukums 2026-10-24
- Ogre United vs Auda — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Super Nova vs Rīgas FS — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- FS Jelgava, previous: FK Liepaja v FS Jelgava analysis
- BFC Daugavpils, previous: BFC Daugavpils vs Auda prediction