FK Liepaja vs Tukums preview
In the Virsliga fixture between FK Liepaja and Tukums, the 1X2 probabilities show FK Liepaja at 63% to win, compared to Tukums at 14%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with FK Liepaja's expected goals of 1.97 against Tukums' 0.81.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. FK Liepaja has drawn three of their last four matches, while Tukums has lost four of their last six. With both teams to score at 49% and Over 2.5 goals at 53%, there is potential for surprises despite FK Liepaja's stronger position.
FK Liepaja vs Tukums: model vs market
| Source | FK Liepaja | Draw | Tukums |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 20% | 10% |
| Market | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Published | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Edge | +14% | -4% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FK Liepaja below the model: +13.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.61, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.
FK Liepaja and Tukums expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (FK Liepaja / Tukums)
- 1.05 / 0.66
- Defence rating (FK Liepaja / Tukums)
- 0.86 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Liepaja vs Tukums score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Liepaja goals. Columns: Tukums goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Liepaja vs Tukums goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Liepaja vs Tukums
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Tukums | 18% | 5.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.15 |
| No | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Liepaja or draw) | 82% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Tukums) | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Liepaja win by 2+ | 47% | 2.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FK Liepaja and Tukums recent form
FK Liepaja
2W 3D 1L
Tukums
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Liepaja at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-4
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
Tukums away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-11
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 2.47
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 5 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Liepaja at home only, Tukums away only.
FK Liepaja vs Tukums head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: FK Liepaja 3 · draws 3 · Tukums 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Tukums | 2-1 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2026-05-30 | FK Liepaja | 3-0 | Tukums | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-17 | Tukums | 2-2 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2025-09-14 | FK Liepaja | 4-1 | Tukums | Virsliga |
| 2025-06-25 | Tukums | 1-3 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2025-05-06 | Tukums | 2-2 | FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| 2025-03-12 | FK Liepaja | 0-0 | Tukums | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Ogre United vs Auda — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils 2026-10-25
- Super Nova vs Rīgas FS — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Grobiņa v Riga — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- FK Liepaja, previous: FK Liepaja v FS Jelgava analysis
- Tukums, previous: Rīgas FS – Tukums, 2026-10-19