Grobiņa vs Riga preview
In the upcoming match between Grobiņa and Riga, the 1X2 probabilities show Grobiņa at 20%, a draw at 27%, and Riga leading at 53%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, which occurs at a rate of 12%. Grobiņa has an expected goals figure of 0.91, while Riga stands at 1.62, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the visitors.
While the model suggests a close match, factors like Grobiņa's recent form of W-L-D-D-L-W and their head-to-head record of 0 wins against Riga's 6 could influence the outcome. Additionally, the chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at 47% and both teams to score at 49%, suggesting that while goals are possible, they are not guaranteed.
Grobiņa vs Riga: model vs market
| Source | Grobiņa | Draw | Riga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 27% | 53% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 20% | 27% | 53% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Grobiņa and Riga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Grobiņa / Riga)
- 0.77 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Grobiņa / Riga)
- 1.16 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Grobiņa vs Riga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Grobiņa goals. Columns: Riga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Grobiņa vs Riga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Grobiņa vs Riga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grobiņa | 20% | 5.02 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Riga | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Grobiņa or draw) | 47% | 2.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Riga) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Riga win by 2+ | 29% | 3.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Grobiņa and Riga recent form
Grobiņa
2W 2D 2L
Riga
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Grobiņa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 5 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Riga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-2
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 2.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 23 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Grobiņa at home only, Riga away only.
Grobiņa vs Riga head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Grobiņa 0 · draws 1 · Riga 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Riga | 4-0 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| 2026-05-29 | Riga | 2-0 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-18 | Grobiņa | 0-3 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2025-11-02 | Grobiņa | 1-1 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2025-08-10 | Riga | 2-0 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| 2025-06-14 | Grobiņa | 0-2 | Riga | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-19 | Riga | 3-0 | Grobiņa | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- FK Liepaja vs Tukums 2026-10-24
- Ogre United vs Auda — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils 2026-10-25
- Super Nova vs Rīgas FS — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Grobiņa, previous: Grobiņa – Ogre United, 2026-10-17
- Riga, previous: Pafos vs Riga: odds and pick
- Riga, next: Riga vs FK Jablonec prediction