Super Nova vs Rīgas FS preview
In the fixture between Super Nova and Rīgas FS, the 1X2 probabilities show Super Nova at 15%, a draw at 24%, and Rīgas FS at 61%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 12% probability. Super Nova's recent form includes 3 losses in their last 5 matches, while Rīgas FS has won 4 of their last 5 games.
The expected goals indicate Super Nova at 0.82 and Rīgas FS at 1.87. There is a 51% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the predictions. Factors like Super Nova's poor recent form or Rīgas FS's away performance could influence the outcome.
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS: model vs market
| Source | Super Nova | Draw | Rīgas FS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 24% | 61% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 15% | 24% | 61% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Super Nova and Rīgas FS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.70
- Attack rating (Super Nova / Rīgas FS)
- 0.67 / 1.47
- Defence rating (Super Nova / Rīgas FS)
- 1.01 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Super Nova goals. Columns: Rīgas FS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Super Nova vs Rīgas FS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Super Nova | 15% | 6.71 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Rīgas FS | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.06 |
| No | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Super Nova or draw) | 39% | 2.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Rīgas FS) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win by 2+ | 37% | 2.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Super Nova and Rīgas FS recent form
Super Nova
2W 0D 4L
Rīgas FS
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Super Nova at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-9
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rīgas FS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 14-1-1
- Win rate
- 88%
- Goals for / match
- 1.81
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 25 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 11 of 12 penalties (92%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Super Nova at home only, Rīgas FS away only.
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Super Nova 0 · draws 0 · Rīgas FS 10.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Rīgas FS | 4-0 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2026-08-16 | Super Nova | 0-1 | Rīgas FS | Cup |
| 2026-05-29 | Super Nova | 1-2 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-18 | Rīgas FS | 2-0 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2026-01-14 | Rīgas FS | 5-2 | Super Nova | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-11-02 | Super Nova | 1-3 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2025-08-10 | Rīgas FS | 4-1 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2025-06-14 | Rīgas FS | 2-1 | Super Nova | Virsliga |
| 2025-04-20 | Super Nova | 1-2 | Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| 2025-01-11 | Rīgas FS | 7-0 | Super Nova | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- FK Liepaja vs Tukums 2026-10-24
- Ogre United vs Auda — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Super Nova, previous: Riga vs Super Nova: odds and pick
- Rīgas FS, previous: Rīgas FS – Tukums, 2026-10-19