Ogre United vs Auda preview
In the upcoming match between Ogre United and Auda, the 1X2 probabilities show Auda at 57%, compared to Ogre United’s 19%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which aligns with Auda's stronger expected goals of 1.94 against Ogre United's 1.04.
Both teams to score stands at 56%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 57%. Ogre United's recent form is concerning, with 4 losses in their last 6 matches, while Auda is unbeaten in their last 6, winning 3. If Ogre United can improve their performance, it could challenge Auda's dominance.
Ogre United vs Auda: model vs market
| Source | Ogre United | Draw | Auda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ogre United and Auda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Ogre United / Auda)
- 0.84 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Ogre United / Auda)
- 1.43 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ogre United vs Auda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ogre United goals. Columns: Auda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ogre United vs Auda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ogre United vs Auda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ogre United | 19% | 5.30 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Auda | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.77 |
| No | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ogre United or draw) | 43% | 2.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Auda) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Auda win by 2+ | 35% | 2.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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Ogre United and Auda recent form
Ogre United
1W 1D 4L
Auda
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ogre United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-9
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 4 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Auda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 19 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ogre United at home only, Auda away only.
Ogre United vs Auda head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ogre United 0 · draws 1 · Auda 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Auda | 1-0 | Ogre United | Virsliga |
| 2026-05-30 | Auda | 2-0 | Ogre United | Virsliga |
| 2026-04-17 | Ogre United | 1-1 | Auda | Virsliga |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- FK Liepaja vs Tukums 2026-10-24
- FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils 2026-10-25
- Super Nova vs Rīgas FS — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Ogre United, previous: Grobiņa – Ogre United, 2026-10-17
- Auda, previous: BFC Daugavpils vs Auda prediction