Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat preview
In the match between Buducnost Podgorica and Arsenal Tivat, the 1X2 probabilities show Buducnost Podgorica at 67%, while Arsenal Tivat sits at just 9%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 18% of the time according to our model. Buducnost Podgorica has an expected goals figure of 1.72 compared to Arsenal Tivat's 0.46, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
However, Buducnost Podgorica's recent form includes two draws, which could affect their performance. Arsenal Tivat, despite a poor run with 6 losses in their last 7 matches, has shown some resilience with one recent win. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 37%, and both teams to score is at 31%, suggesting a low-scoring match is more likely.
Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat: model vs market
| Source | Buducnost Podgorica | Draw | Arsenal Tivat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 24% | 9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 67% | 24% | 9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.46.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Buducnost Podgorica and Arsenal Tivat expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.18
- Attack rating (Buducnost Podgorica / Arsenal Tivat)
- 1.00 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Buducnost Podgorica / Arsenal Tivat)
- 0.66 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Buducnost Podgorica goals. Columns: Arsenal Tivat goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Buducnost Podgorica | 67% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Arsenal Tivat | 9% | 11.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.19 |
| No | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Buducnost Podgorica or draw) | 91% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Arsenal Tivat) | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Buducnost Podgorica win by 2+ | 40% | 2.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Buducnost Podgorica and Arsenal Tivat recent form
Buducnost Podgorica
3W 2D 1L
Arsenal Tivat
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Buducnost Podgorica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arsenal Tivat away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Buducnost Podgorica at home only, Arsenal Tivat away only.
Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Buducnost Podgorica 1 · draws 1 · Arsenal Tivat 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Arsenal Tivat | 0-0 | Buducnost Podgorica | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-04-18 | Buducnost Podgorica | 0-2 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-02-25 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-0 | Buducnost Podgorica | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-10-18 | Buducnost Podgorica | 4-2 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-08-18 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-0 | Buducnost Podgorica | Montenegro First League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Mornar vs Mladost DG 2026-10-24
- Bokelj v Dečić — match page 2026-10-24
- Jezero vs Petrovac — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Otrant-Olympic vs Sutjeska 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Buducnost Podgorica, previous: Dečić vs Buducnost Podgorica prediction
- Arsenal Tivat, previous: Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar: odds and pick