Mornar vs Mladost DG preview
Mornar takes on Mladost DG with a 60% probability of winning compared to Mladost DG's 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 in favor of Mornar, which aligns with their expected goals of 1.94 against Mladost DG's 0.95. Mornar's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches, while Mladost DG has 2 wins and 3 losses.
The prediction for Over 2.5 goals stands at 55%, and both teams to score is at 53%. However, Mladost DG's struggles in head-to-head encounters, with 0 wins in the last 5 matches against Mornar, could impact these outcomes. Mornar's confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the forecast.
Mornar vs Mladost DG: model vs market
| Source | Mornar | Draw | Mladost DG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 60% | 24% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.95.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mornar and Mladost DG expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Mornar / Mladost DG)
- 1.13 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Mornar / Mladost DG)
- 0.99 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mornar vs Mladost DG score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mornar goals. Columns: Mladost DG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mornar vs Mladost DG goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mornar vs Mladost DG
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mornar | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Mladost DG | 17% | 5.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mornar or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Mladost DG) | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mornar win by 2+ | 36% | 2.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mornar and Mladost DG recent form
Mornar
2W 2D 2L
Mladost DG
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mornar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Mladost DG away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mornar at home only, Mladost DG away only.
Mornar vs Mladost DG head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Mornar 5 · draws 0 · Mladost DG 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Mladost DG | 2-3 | Mornar | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-04-26 | Mladost DG | 1-2 | Mornar | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-03-01 | Mornar | 3-0 | Mladost DG | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-10-26 | Mladost DG | 1-3 | Mornar | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-08-24 | Mornar | 2-1 | Mladost DG | Montenegro First League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Bokelj v Dečić — match page 2026-10-24
- Jezero vs Petrovac — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Otrant-Olympic vs Sutjeska 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Mornar, previous: Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar: odds and pick
- Mladost DG, previous: Mladost DG – Jezero, 2026-10-18