Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar: model vs market
| Source | Arsenal Tivat | Draw | Mornar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 31% | 41% |
| Market | 20% | 28% | 52% |
| Published | 22% | 29% | 49% |
| Edge | +7% | +3% | -10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mornar, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tivat | 4.60 | 4.55 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
| Mornar | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arsenal Tivat and Mornar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.23
- Attack rating (Arsenal Tivat / Mornar)
- 0.73 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Arsenal Tivat / Mornar)
- 1.23 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arsenal Tivat goals. Columns: Mornar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal Tivat | 22% | 4.58 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Mornar | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arsenal Tivat or draw) | 51% | 1.97 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Mornar) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mornar win by 2+ | 19% | 5.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Arsenal Tivat and Mornar recent form
Arsenal Tivat
1W 1D 4L
Mornar
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arsenal Tivat at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
Mornar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal Tivat at home only, Mornar away only.
Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Arsenal Tivat 2 · draws 3 · Mornar 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Mornar | 0-0 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-04-12 | Arsenal Tivat | 0-1 | Mornar | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-02-21 | Mornar | 1-2 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-10-08 | Arsenal Tivat | 0-1 | Mornar | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-08-10 | Mornar | 2-2 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-05-14 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-1 | Mornar | First League |
| 2025-03-16 | Mornar | 1-0 | Arsenal Tivat | First League |
| 2024-11-10 | Arsenal Tivat | 4-0 | Mornar | First League |
| 2024-09-14 | Mornar | 4-0 | Arsenal Tivat | First League |
| 2024-04-21 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-2 | Mornar | First League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Mladost DG v Jezero — match page 2026-10-18
- Dečić vs Buducnost Podgorica 2026-10-18
- Petrovac v Otrant-Olympic — match page 2026-10-19
- Sutjeska vs Bokelj 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Arsenal Tivat, next: Buducnost Podgorica v Arsenal Tivat analysis
- Mornar, previous: Mornar – Jezero, 2026-10-08
- Mornar, next: Mornar vs Mladost DG: odds and pick