Mornar vs Petrovac preview
In the match between Mornar and Petrovac, Mornar has a 65% chance to win, while Petrovac sits at 14%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which occurs with an 11% probability. Mornar's expected goals are 2.18 compared to Petrovac's 0.93, highlighting a significant offensive advantage for Mornar.
However, there are factors that could change the expected outcome. Petrovac has shown some resilience with a recent form of W-L-L-L-D-D, indicating potential for improvement. Both teams to score has a 55% chance, suggesting that while Mornar is favoured, Petrovac could still find the net. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty in the forecast.
Mornar vs Petrovac: model vs market
| Source | Mornar | Draw | Petrovac |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mornar and Petrovac expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.12
- Attack rating (Mornar / Petrovac)
- 1.33 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Mornar / Petrovac)
- 0.98 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mornar vs Petrovac score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mornar goals. Columns: Petrovac goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mornar vs Petrovac goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mornar vs Petrovac
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mornar | 65% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 | |
| Petrovac | 14% | 7.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mornar or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Petrovac) | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mornar win by 2+ | 42% | 2.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mornar and Petrovac recent form
Mornar
2W 2D 2L
Petrovac
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mornar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Petrovac away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mornar at home only, Petrovac away only.
Mornar vs Petrovac head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Mornar 3 · draws 5 · Petrovac 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Petrovac | 1-1 | Mornar | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-07-01 | Mornar | 0-0 | Petrovac | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-05-20 | Mornar | 1-1 | Petrovac | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-03-21 | Petrovac | 0-2 | Mornar | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-11-30 | Mornar | 3-1 | Petrovac | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-09-21 | Petrovac | 1-1 | Mornar | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-05-24 | Petrovac | 0-2 | Mornar | First League |
| 2025-04-02 | Mornar | 1-1 | Petrovac | First League |
| 2024-12-01 | Petrovac | 4-2 | Mornar | First League |
| 2024-09-29 | Mornar | 0-2 | Petrovac | First League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Bokelj v Buducnost Podgorica — match page 2026-11-01
- Jezero vs Dečić — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Otrant-Olympic vs Arsenal Tivat 2026-11-01
- Mladost DG v Sutjeska — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Mornar, previous: Buducnost Podgorica vs Mornar: odds and pick
- Petrovac, previous: Petrovac – Mladost DG, 2026-10-28