Otrant-Olympic vs Arsenal Tivat preview
In the Montenegro First League match on 2026-11-01, Otrant-Olympic has a strong 73% probability to win against Arsenal Tivat, who sits at just 10%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with Otrant-Olympic expected to score 2.69 goals while Arsenal Tivat is projected at only 0.95.
However, Otrant-Olympic's recent form shows a mix of results with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Arsenal Tivat has struggled, recording 4 losses in their last 6 games. The model suggests a 70% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score, which could change the dynamics if Arsenal Tivat finds their scoring touch.
Otrant-Olympic vs Arsenal Tivat: model vs market
| Source | Otrant-Olympic | Draw | Arsenal Tivat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 16% | 10% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 73% | 16% | 10% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.69 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Otrant-Olympic and Arsenal Tivat expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.64
- Attack rating (Otrant-Olympic / Arsenal Tivat)
- 1.41 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Otrant-Olympic / Arsenal Tivat)
- 1.05 / 1.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Otrant-Olympic vs Arsenal Tivat score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Otrant-Olympic goals. Columns: Arsenal Tivat goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Otrant-Olympic vs Arsenal Tivat goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Otrant-Olympic vs Arsenal Tivat
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Otrant-Olympic | 73% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.09 | |
| Arsenal Tivat | 10% | 9.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Otrant-Olympic or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Arsenal Tivat) | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Otrant-Olympic win by 2+ | 53% | 1.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Otrant-Olympic and Arsenal Tivat recent form
Otrant-Olympic
3W 2D 1L
Arsenal Tivat
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Otrant-Olympic at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arsenal Tivat away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-1
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Otrant-Olympic at home only, Arsenal Tivat away only.
Otrant-Olympic vs Arsenal Tivat head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Otrant-Olympic 1 · draws 0 · Arsenal Tivat 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-2 | Otrant-Olympic | Montenegro First League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Mornar vs Petrovac 2026-11-01
- Bokelj v Buducnost Podgorica — match page 2026-11-01
- Jezero vs Dečić — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Mladost DG v Sutjeska — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Otrant-Olympic, previous: Dečić vs Otrant-Olympic: odds and pick
- Arsenal Tivat, previous: Arsenal Tivat v Bokelj analysis