Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero preview
In the match between Arsenal Tivat and Jezero, the 1X2 probabilities show Jezero at 37% and Arsenal Tivat at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Jezero, with a 9% chance. Both teams have struggled recently, with Arsenal Tivat recording 1 win in their last 5 matches and Jezero winning 1 of their last 6.
The forecast indicates a 56% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score. Arsenal Tivat's expected goals stand at 1.45, while Jezero's is slightly higher at 1.49. This close expected goals figure suggests a competitive match, but if either team fails to convert chances, the predictions could be off.
Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero: model vs market
| Source | Arsenal Tivat | Draw | Jezero |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Published | 32% | 29% | 40% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Arsenal Tivat and Jezero expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Arsenal Tivat / Jezero)
- 0.85 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Arsenal Tivat / Jezero)
- 1.36 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arsenal Tivat goals. Columns: Jezero goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal Tivat | 32% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Jezero | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arsenal Tivat or draw) | 60% | 1.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Jezero) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Jezero win by 2+ | 19% | 5.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arsenal Tivat and Jezero recent form
Arsenal Tivat
1W 2D 3L
Jezero
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arsenal Tivat at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Jezero away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal Tivat at home only, Jezero away only.
Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Arsenal Tivat 0 · draws 4 · Jezero 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Jezero | 5-2 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-05-02 | Jezero | 0-0 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-03-07 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-2 | Jezero | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-02-05 | Arsenal Tivat | 1-3 | Jezero | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-11-02 | Jezero | 2-0 | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-08-30 | Arsenal Tivat | 2-2 | Jezero | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-05-24 | Arsenal Tivat | 0-0 | Jezero | First League |
| 2025-04-02 | Jezero | 2-0 | Arsenal Tivat | First League |
| 2024-12-01 | Arsenal Tivat | 0-1 | Jezero | First League |
| 2024-09-28 | Jezero | 0-0 | Arsenal Tivat | First League |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bokelj vs Mornar — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Buducnost Podgorica vs Otrant-Olympic — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Sutjeska vs Petrovac 2026-11-08
- Dečić vs Mladost DG 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Arsenal Tivat, previous: Otrant-Olympic vs Arsenal Tivat: odds and pick
- Arsenal Tivat, next: Arsenal Tivat v Dečić analysis
- Jezero, previous: Jezero v Dečić analysis
- Jezero, next: Jezero vs Buducnost Podgorica prediction