Bokelj vs Mornar preview
In the Montenegro First League fixture between Bokelj and Mornar, the 1X2 probabilities show Mornar at 38% and Bokelj at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with an 11% probability. Mornar has a stronger recent form with 2 wins in their last 5 matches compared to Bokelj’s 2 wins.
While both teams to score stands at 41%, the expected goals suggest a tighter match, with Bokelj at 1.06 and Mornar at 0.92. This could mean a low-scoring affair, contrary to the 32% chance of Over 2.5 goals. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Bokelj vs Mornar: model vs market
| Source | Bokelj | Draw | Mornar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 34% | 30% |
| Market | 27% | 32% | 41% |
| Published | 30% | 32% | 38% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bokelj and Mornar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.99
- Attack rating (Bokelj / Mornar)
- 0.76 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Bokelj / Mornar)
- 0.76 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bokelj vs Mornar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bokelj goals. Columns: Mornar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bokelj vs Mornar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bokelj vs Mornar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bokelj | 30% | 3.36 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Mornar | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.45 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bokelj or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or Mornar) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mornar win by 2+ | 11% | 9.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bokelj and Mornar recent form
Bokelj
2W 2D 2L
Mornar
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bokelj at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mornar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bokelj at home only, Mornar away only.
Bokelj vs Mornar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Bokelj 1 · draws 3 · Mornar 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Mornar | 2-0 | Bokelj | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-05-10 | Mornar | 0-0 | Bokelj | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-03-11 | Bokelj | 1-2 | Mornar | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-11-09 | Mornar | 0-0 | Bokelj | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-09-13 | Bokelj | 1-2 | Mornar | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-05-18 | Mornar | 4-1 | Bokelj | First League |
| 2025-03-29 | Bokelj | 0-2 | Mornar | First League |
| 2024-11-27 | Mornar | 3-0 | Bokelj | Cup |
| 2024-11-23 | Mornar | 1-1 | Bokelj | First League |
| 2024-09-22 | Bokelj | 2-0 | Mornar | First League |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Arsenal Tivat v Jezero — match page 2026-11-07
- Buducnost Podgorica vs Otrant-Olympic — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Sutjeska vs Petrovac 2026-11-08
- Dečić vs Mladost DG 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Bokelj, previous: Bokelj – Buducnost Podgorica, 2026-11-02
- Bokelj, next: Bokelj vs Petrovac: odds and pick
- Mornar, previous: Mornar vs Petrovac prediction