Almere City FC vs FC Volendam Prediction & Betting Tips 03/10/2026

Almere City FC vs FC Volendam: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Almere City FC	Draw	FC Volendam
Model	59%	21%	20%
Market	49%	24%	27%
Published	52%	23%	26%
Edge	+10%	-3%	-7%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.37.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
The market prices Almere City FC below the model: +10.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Almere City FC vs FC Volendam odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Almere City FC, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 1.96Now 1.90 -0.06

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Almere City FC	1.96	1.90	-0.06
Draw	3.84	3.92	+0.08
FC Volendam	3.21	3.40	+0.19

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Almere City FC and FC Volendam expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.39Almere City FC

1.37FC Volendam

Total expected goals: 3.76
Attack rating (Almere City FC / FC Volendam): 1.18 / 1.22
Defence rating (Almere City FC / FC Volendam): 0.76 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Almere City FC vs FC Volendam score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.1% 2.4% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 1 4.8% 8.4% 5.2% 2.4% 1.1% 2 6.7% 9.1% 6.2% 2.8% 1.3% 3 5.3% 7.3% 5.0% 2.3% 1.0% 4+ 5.6% 7.6% 5.2% 2.4% 1.1%

Rows: Almere City FC goals. Columns: FC Volendam goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Almere City FC vs FC Volendam goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 72%

Over 3.5 52%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Almere City FC vs FC Volendam

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Almere City FC	52%	1.94
	Draw	23%	4.36
	FC Volendam	26%	3.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72%	1.38
	Under 2.5	28%	3.63
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.46
	No	31%	3.18
Double chance	1X (Almere City FC or draw)	74%	1.34
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or FC Volendam)	48%	2.06
Handicap -1	Almere City FC win by 2+	39%	2.58
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Almere City FC and FC Volendam recent form

Almere City FC 4W 0D 2L

FC Volendam 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Almere City FC at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-0-1
Win rate: 67%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 0.67
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Volendam away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-4
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.50
Goals against / match: 3.25
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Almere City FC at home only, FC Volendam away only.

Almere City FC vs FC Volendam head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Almere City FC 3 · draws 2 · FC Volendam 4.

33% 22% 45%

Almere City FCDrawsFC Volendam

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-07-15	Almere City FC	2-1	FC Volendam	Friendlies Clubs
2024-03-31	Almere City FC	1-1	FC Volendam	Eredivisie
2024-01-14	FC Volendam	0-1	Almere City FC	Eredivisie
2021-12-17	Almere City FC	2-3	FC Volendam	Eerste Divisie
2021-10-01	FC Volendam	3-2	Almere City FC	Eerste Divisie
2021-03-03	Almere City FC	1-2	FC Volendam	Eerste Divisie
2020-11-27	FC Volendam	2-2	Almere City FC	Eerste Divisie
2019-09-08	Almere City FC	1-0	FC Volendam	Eerste Divisie
2019-01-13	Almere City FC	0-2	FC Volendam	Eerste Divisie

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Helmond Sport v Heracles — match page 2026-10-02
Vitesse vs NAC Breda — team news & stats 2026-10-03
FC OSS vs MVV 2026-10-03
Waalwijk v Emmen — match page 2026-10-03
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht 2026-10-03
FC Eindhoven v De Graafschap — match page 2026-10-03