Eerste Divisie · Matchday 9

Waalwijk vs Emmen

· Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Waalwijk to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
WaalwijkDrawEmmen

Waalwijk vs Emmen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWaalwijkDrawEmmen
Model63%18%18%
Market44%26%31%
Published49%24%28%
Edge+20%-7%-12%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.69 vs 1.44.
  • The market prices Waalwijk below the model: +19.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Waalwijk vs Emmen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Waalwijk, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 1.96Now 2.14 +0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Waalwijk1.962.14+0.18
Draw3.803.65-0.15
Emmen3.263.05-0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Waalwijk and Emmen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.69Waalwijk
1.44Emmen
Total expected goals
4.12
Attack rating (Waalwijk / Emmen)
1.23 / 1.11
Defence rating (Waalwijk / Emmen)
0.88 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Waalwijk vs Emmen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 1 3.7% 6.9% 4.5% 2.1% 1.1% 2 5.9% 8.4% 6.0% 2.9% 1.4% 3 5.2% 7.5% 5.4% 2.6% 1.3% 4+ 6.7% 9.7% 6.9% 3.3% 1.6%

Rows: Waalwijk goals. Columns: Emmen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Waalwijk vs Emmen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 59%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Waalwijk vs Emmen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Waalwijk49%2.06
Draw24%4.19
Emmen28%3.63
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.28
Under 2.522%4.53
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.39
No28%3.53
Double chance1X (Waalwijk or draw)72%1.38
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Emmen)51%1.95
Handicap -1Waalwijk win by 2+44%2.28
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Waalwijk and Emmen recent form

Waalwijk 3W 2D 1L
Emmen 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Waalwijk at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
3.50
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Emmen away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
3.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Waalwijk at home only, Emmen away only.

Waalwijk vs Emmen head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Waalwijk 3 · draws 3 · Emmen 3.

WaalwijkDrawsEmmen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-10Waalwijk5-0EmmenEerste Divisie
2025-11-02Emmen2-2WaalwijkEerste Divisie
2023-01-28Waalwijk2-0EmmenEredivisie
2022-08-13Emmen1-1WaalwijkEredivisie
2021-04-04Emmen3-1WaalwijkEredivisie
2021-02-12Waalwijk1-0EmmenEredivisie
2019-11-24Waalwijk1-1EmmenEredivisie
2018-01-19Emmen2-1WaalwijkEerste Divisie
2017-08-18Waalwijk0-2EmmenEerste Divisie

Other Matchday 9 fixtures