Eerste Divisie · Matchday 9

FC OSS vs MVV

· Frans Heesen Stadion, Os

Full time4 – 1

Alin prediction was FC OSS to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC OSSDrawMVV

FC OSS vs MVV: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC OSSDrawMVV
Model56%24%20%
Market42%27%32%
Published45%26%29%
Edge+14%-2%-12%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.04.
  • The market prices FC OSS below the model: +14.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC OSS vs MVV odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC OSS, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.24Now 2.22 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC OSS2.242.22-0.02
Draw3.503.46-0.04
MVV2.912.90-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC OSS and MVV expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.88FC OSS
1.04MVV
Total expected goals
2.93
Attack rating (FC OSS / MVV)
0.92 / 0.76
Defence rating (FC OSS / MVV)
0.92 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC OSS vs MVV score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 4.5% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3% 1 9.0% 11.6% 5.5% 1.9% 0.6% 2 9.5% 9.9% 5.2% 1.8% 0.6% 3 6.0% 6.2% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 4.3% 4.5% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: FC OSS goals. Columns: MVV goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC OSS vs MVV goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC OSS vs MVV

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC OSS45%2.22
Draw26%3.83
MVV29%3.48
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.79
Under 2.544%2.27
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.79
No44%2.27
Double chance1X (FC OSS or draw)71%1.40
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or MVV)55%1.82
Handicap -1FC OSS win by 2+33%3.02
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC OSS and MVV recent form

FC OSS 2W 0D 4L
MVV 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC OSS at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

MVV away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC OSS at home only, MVV away only.

FC OSS vs MVV head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: FC OSS 3 · draws 1 · MVV 5.

FC OSSDrawsMVV
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-24MVV0-2FC OSSEerste Divisie
2025-08-08FC OSS4-0MVVEerste Divisie
2025-01-10FC OSS1-0MVVEerste Divisie
2024-09-27MVV2-2FC OSSEerste Divisie
2023-12-22MVV2-0FC OSSEerste Divisie
2023-11-10FC OSS0-1MVVEerste Divisie
2023-02-10MVV5-1FC OSSEerste Divisie
2022-10-07FC OSS0-1MVVEerste Divisie
2022-05-06FC OSS0-1MVVEerste Divisie

Other Matchday 9 fixtures