Vitesse vs NAC Breda: model vs market
| Source | Vitesse | Draw | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Published | 37% | 23% | 40% |
| Edge | +23% | -2% | -22% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Vitesse vs NAC Breda odds movement
Median bookmaker price on NAC Breda, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse | 2.64 | 3.00 | +0.36 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| NAC Breda | 2.28 | 2.05 | -0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vitesse and NAC Breda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.56
- Attack rating (Vitesse / NAC Breda)
- 1.05 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Vitesse / NAC Breda)
- 0.82 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vitesse vs NAC Breda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vitesse goals. Columns: NAC Breda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vitesse vs NAC Breda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vitesse vs NAC Breda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitesse | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 | |
| NAC Breda | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vitesse or draw) | 60% | 1.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or NAC Breda) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | NAC Breda win by 2+ | 10% | 9.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Vitesse and NAC Breda recent form
Vitesse
3W 0D 3L
NAC Breda
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vitesse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NAC Breda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vitesse at home only, NAC Breda away only.
Vitesse vs NAC Breda head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Vitesse 7 · draws 1 · NAC Breda 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-02 | Vitesse | 4-1 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| 2018-12-09 | NAC Breda | 2-1 | Vitesse | Eredivisie |
| 2018-04-07 | NAC Breda | 1-0 | Vitesse | Eredivisie |
| 2017-08-12 | Vitesse | 4-1 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| 2015-02-07 | NAC Breda | 0-1 | Vitesse | Eredivisie |
| 2014-10-25 | Vitesse | 2-2 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| 2014-03-08 | NAC Breda | 1-2 | Vitesse | Eredivisie |
| 2013-12-15 | Vitesse | 3-2 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| 2013-04-06 | Vitesse | 3-0 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| 2012-10-20 | NAC Breda | 0-3 | Vitesse | Eredivisie |
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