Helmond Sport vs Heracles: model vs market
| Source | Helmond Sport | Draw | Heracles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| Market | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| Published | 18% | 21% | 60% |
| Edge | +14% | +4% | -19% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Helmond Sport vs Heracles odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Heracles, 11 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond Sport | 6.10 | 6.25 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.60 | -0.15 |
| Heracles | 1.41 | 1.44 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Helmond Sport and Heracles expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Helmond Sport / Heracles)
- 0.88 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Helmond Sport / Heracles)
- 0.96 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Helmond Sport vs Heracles score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Helmond Sport goals. Columns: Heracles goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Helmond Sport vs Heracles goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Helmond Sport vs Heracles
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helmond Sport | 18% | 5.41 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Heracles | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.55 |
| No | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Helmond Sport or draw) | 40% | 2.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Heracles) | 82% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win by 2+ | 26% | 3.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Helmond Sport and Heracles recent form
Helmond Sport
2W 1D 3L
Heracles
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Helmond Sport at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Heracles away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Helmond Sport at home only, Heracles away only.
Helmond Sport vs Heracles head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Helmond Sport 0 · draws 0 · Heracles 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-05 | Heracles | 2-0 | Helmond Sport | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-04-21 | Helmond Sport | 0-1 | Heracles | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-09-23 | Heracles | 2-0 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
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