FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap: model vs market
| Source | FC Eindhoven | Draw | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 23% | 30% |
| Market | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Published | 37% | 24% | 39% |
| Edge | +14% | -2% | -12% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap odds movement
Median bookmaker price on De Graafschap, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Eindhoven | 2.85 | 2.80 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.72 | -0.02 |
| De Graafschap | 2.16 | 2.22 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.63
- Attack rating (FC Eindhoven / De Graafschap)
- 0.91 / 0.89
- Defence rating (FC Eindhoven / De Graafschap)
- 1.21 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Eindhoven goals. Columns: De Graafschap goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Eindhoven | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.08 | |
| De Graafschap | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Eindhoven or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or De Graafschap) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | De Graafschap win by 2+ | 14% | 6.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap recent form
FC Eindhoven
2W 1D 3L
De Graafschap
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Eindhoven at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
De Graafschap away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Eindhoven at home only, De Graafschap away only.
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Eindhoven 3 · draws 2 · De Graafschap 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | FC Eindhoven | 2-2 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-11-30 | De Graafschap | 2-0 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-04-11 | FC Eindhoven | 1-0 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-09-06 | De Graafschap | 2-0 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-01-19 | FC Eindhoven | 0-1 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-10-27 | De Graafschap | 2-1 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-02-24 | FC Eindhoven | 0-4 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-12-11 | De Graafschap | 1-2 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-05-13 | FC Eindhoven | 3-1 | De Graafschap | Eredivisie |
| 2022-05-09 | De Graafschap | 1-1 | FC Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Helmond Sport v Heracles — match page 2026-10-02
- Vitesse vs NAC Breda — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- FC OSS vs MVV 2026-10-03
- Waalwijk v Emmen — match page 2026-10-03
- Almere City FC vs FC Volendam — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Den Bosch vs Dordrecht 2026-10-03