Den Bosch vs Dordrecht: model vs market
| Source | Den Bosch | Draw | Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 21% | 26% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Published | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.59.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Den Bosch below the model: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Den Bosch, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Den Bosch | 1.83 | 1.91 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 3.92 | -0.13 |
| Dordrecht | 3.55 | 3.30 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Den Bosch and Dordrecht expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.87
- Attack rating (Den Bosch / Dordrecht)
- 0.85 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Den Bosch / Dordrecht)
- 1.23 / 1.49
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Den Bosch goals. Columns: Dordrecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Den Bosch vs Dordrecht
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Den Bosch | 49% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Dordrecht | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.38 |
| No | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Den Bosch or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Dordrecht) | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Den Bosch win by 2+ | 33% | 3.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Den Bosch and Dordrecht recent form
Den Bosch
2W 0D 4L
Dordrecht
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Den Bosch at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Dordrecht away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Den Bosch at home only, Dordrecht away only.
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Den Bosch 2 · draws 1 · Dordrecht 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Dordrecht | 3-2 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-12 | Den Bosch | 3-3 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-04-12 | Dordrecht | 4-0 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-12-01 | Den Bosch | 2-3 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-03-29 | Den Bosch | 0-3 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-10-27 | Dordrecht | 5-1 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-07-21 | Dordrecht | 2-0 | Den Bosch | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-03-17 | Den Bosch | 3-1 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-09-09 | Dordrecht | 2-1 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-04-08 | Den Bosch | 3-0 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
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