VVV Venlo vs Roda: model vs market
| Source | VVV Venlo | Draw | Roda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Published | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | +1% | +4% | -5% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
VVV Venlo vs Roda odds movement
Median bookmaker price on VVV Venlo, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo | 2.40 | 2.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.73 | 3.70 | -0.02 |
| Roda | 2.53 | 2.57 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
VVV Venlo and Roda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (VVV Venlo / Roda)
- 1.32 / 0.80
- Defence rating (VVV Venlo / Roda)
- 1.03 / 0.58
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
VVV Venlo vs Roda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: VVV Venlo goals. Columns: Roda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
VVV Venlo vs Roda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for VVV Venlo vs Roda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VVV Venlo | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Roda | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (VVV Venlo or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Roda) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | VVV Venlo win by 2+ | 19% | 5.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
VVV Venlo and Roda recent form
VVV Venlo
4W 0D 2L
Roda
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
VVV Venlo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Roda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: VVV Venlo at home only, Roda away only.
VVV Venlo vs Roda head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: VVV Venlo 2 · draws 6 · Roda 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | Roda | 2-2 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-08-24 | VVV Venlo | 3-1 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-03-29 | Roda | 1-4 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-08-25 | VVV Venlo | 1-1 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-04-07 | Roda | 2-1 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-10-14 | VVV Venlo | 1-1 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-03-19 | VVV Venlo | 1-1 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-10-07 | Roda | 4-1 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-02-13 | VVV Venlo | 1-1 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-11-26 | Roda | 0-0 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Vitesse vs NAC Breda — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- FC OSS vs MVV 2026-10-03
- Waalwijk v Emmen — match page 2026-10-03
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- Den Bosch vs Dordrecht 2026-10-03