Updated

Segunda Liga · Matchday 11

Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932

· Municipal de Amarante, Amarante· Referee Vitor Jorge Fernandes Ferreira

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Amarante to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AmaranteDrawFelgueiras 1932

Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAmaranteDrawFelgueiras 1932
Model36%27%37%
Market40%31%29%
Published39%30%31%
Edge-1%-1%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Amarante, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-09.

Opened 2.50Now 2.26 -0.24
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Amarante2.502.26-0.24
Draw2.992.99+0.00
Felgueiras 19322.843.17+0.33

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Amarante and Felgueiras 1932 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.44Amarante
1.47Felgueiras 1932
Total expected goals
2.90
Attack rating (Amarante / Felgueiras 1932)
0.99 / 1.18
Defence rating (Amarante / Felgueiras 1932)
1.06 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 6.9% 5.9% 2.9% 1.5% 1 6.7% 12.7% 8.5% 4.1% 2.1% 2 5.7% 8.3% 6.1% 3.0% 1.5% 3 2.7% 4.0% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 4+ 1.3% 2.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Amarante goals. Columns: Felgueiras 1932 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Amarante39%2.54
Draw30%3.36
Felgueiras 193231%3.23
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.80
Under 2.545%2.25
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.67
No40%2.49
Double chance1X (Amarante or draw)69%1.45
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Felgueiras 1932)61%1.65
Handicap -1Amarante win by 2+17%5.77
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Amarante and Felgueiras 1932 recent form

Amarante 2W 1D 3L
Felgueiras 1932 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Amarante at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

Felgueiras 1932 away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.60
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Amarante at home only, Felgueiras 1932 away only.

Expected lineups

Amarante lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 65 Diogo Figueiredo
  2. 20 Luís Machado
  3. 15 Rodrigo Beirão
  4. 3 Feliciano Mendes
  5. 7 L. Ferreira
  6. 5 Joao Ricardo
  7. 8 Tokinho
  8. 85 Nito Gomes
  9. 78 Simão Silva
  10. 14 A. Idache

Bench: Rafael Flores, Gonçalo Cunha, Rodrigo Guedes, K. Ikugar, Diogo Costa, Ian Custódio, Diogo Fernandes, Rúben Alves

Felgueiras 1932 lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 14 Mateus Pasinato
  2. 23 Afonso de Freitas
  3. 24 Rui Rampa
  4. 70 B. Ouacharaf
  5. 77 Francisco França
  6. 13 Joãozinho
  7. 19 Lucas da Costa Duarte
  8. 9 Tiago Rafael Fernandes Leiite

Bench: João Pinto, Afonso Peixoto, Henrique Martins, Mario Rivas, Landinho, João Costa, I. Server, Armando Lopes, Filipe Cruz, Rodrigo Santos Ribeiro, Felipe Scheibig, Nuno Namora

Amarante vs Felgueiras 1932 head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Amarante 1 · draws 1 · Felgueiras 1932 0.

AmaranteDrawsFelgueiras 1932
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2020-02-02Felgueiras 19323-5AmaranteCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B
2019-09-01Amarante0-0Felgueiras 1932Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match