Updated

Segunda Liga · Matchday 11

Portimonense vs Academica

· Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Portimão· Referee Bruno Miguel do Carmo Vieira

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Portimonense to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PortimonenseDrawAcademica

Portimonense vs Academica: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePortimonenseDrawAcademica
Model29%30%41%
Market41%29%30%
Published38%29%33%
Edge-3%0%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Portimonense vs Academica odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Portimonense, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-09.

Opened 2.30Now 2.21 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Portimonense2.302.21-0.08
Draw3.203.21+0.01
Academica2.983.07+0.09

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Portimonense and Academica expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07Portimonense
1.31Academica
Total expected goals
2.37
Attack rating (Portimonense / Academica)
0.79 / 1.37
Defence rating (Portimonense / Academica)
0.81 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Portimonense vs Academica score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.6% 10.9% 8.0% 3.5% 1.5% 1 8.7% 14.3% 8.5% 3.7% 1.6% 2 5.3% 6.9% 4.5% 2.0% 0.9% 3 1.9% 2.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Portimonense goals. Columns: Academica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Portimonense vs Academica goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Portimonense vs Academica

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Portimonense38%2.61
Draw29%3.45
Academica33%3.06
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.37
Under 2.558%1.73
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.04
No51%1.96
Double chance1X (Portimonense or draw)67%1.48
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Academica)62%1.62
Handicap -1Portimonense win by 2+12%8.56
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Portimonense and Academica recent form

Portimonense 4W 1D 1L
Academica 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Portimonense at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Academica away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Portimonense at home only, Academica away only.

Expected lineups

Portimonense lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 Dudu
  2. 6 S. Neves
  3. 15 Xavier
  4. 4 Italo Cabelinho
  5. 17 João Reis
  6. 80 Felipe Favero
  7. 10 S. Nakajima
  8. 2 Edney
  9. 7 Danio Djassi
  10. 93 Welinton Júnior
  11. 9 S. Yépié Yépié

Bench: Jarleysom Amurim, G. Tunguliyadi, João Casimiro, Diogo Cabral, Midana Cassama, Yanis da Rocha, Ericson, Thauan Lara, Wellington, G. Aguas, Paulinho, Zinho

Academica lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 12 Victor Braga
  2. 22 Hélder Lopes
  3. 54 Ni
  4. 2 Xavi
  5. 17 Marcos Paulo
  6. 5 Leandro Silva
  7. 20 J. Sinisterra
  8. 8 K. Zohi
  9. 92 A. Coundoul
  10. 19 Afonso Rodrigues

Bench: Nuno Macedo, Ricardo Teixeira, Martim Tavares, I. Faure, Kauan, Rui Gomes, P. Texel, H. Nunes, João Oliveira, Carlos Alves

Portimonense vs Academica head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Portimonense 2 · draws 3 · Academica 2.

PortimonenseDrawsAcademica
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2021-07-23Portimonense2-1AcademicaTaça da Liga
2019-10-19Academica2-1PortimonenseTaça de Portugal
2019-08-03Portimonense2-0AcademicaTaça da Liga
2017-02-04Portimonense0-0AcademicaSegunda Liga
2016-08-24Academica0-0PortimonenseSegunda Liga
2011-04-02Academica1-0PortimonensePrimeira Liga
2010-11-06Portimonense2-2AcademicaPrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match