Updated

Segunda Liga · Matchday 11

Leixoes vs Chaves

· Estadio do Mar, Matosinhos· Referee Claudio Pereira

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Leixoes to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LeixoesDrawChaves

Leixoes vs Chaves: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLeixoesDrawChaves
Model48%22%30%
Market49%27%24%
Published49%26%26%
Edge0%-1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.77.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Leixoes vs Chaves odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leixoes, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-10.

Opened 1.99Now 1.86 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Leixoes1.991.86-0.12
Draw3.383.40+0.02
Chaves3.463.80+0.34

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leixoes and Chaves expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.22Leixoes
1.77Chaves
Total expected goals
3.99
Attack rating (Leixoes / Chaves)
1.17 / 1.16
Defence rating (Leixoes / Chaves)
1.30 / 1.49

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leixoes vs Chaves score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 2.5% 2.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1 3.4% 8.0% 6.4% 3.8% 2.5% 2 4.6% 8.1% 7.1% 4.2% 2.8% 3 3.4% 6.0% 5.3% 3.1% 2.0% 4+ 3.2% 5.6% 4.9% 2.9% 1.9%

Rows: Leixoes goals. Columns: Chaves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leixoes vs Chaves goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leixoes vs Chaves

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Leixoes49%2.05
Draw26%3.91
Chaves26%3.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.17
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.34
No25%3.94
Double chance1X (Leixoes or draw)74%1.34
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or Chaves)51%1.95
Handicap -1Leixoes win by 2+29%3.45
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Leixoes and Chaves recent form

Leixoes 1W 1D 4L
Chaves 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Leixoes at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-3
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chaves away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.60
Goals against / match
2.20
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Leixoes at home only, Chaves away only.

Expected lineups

Leixoes lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 26 Caio Secco
  2. 30 Serif Nhaga
  3. 4 Matheus Costa
  4. 3 Lourenço Henriques
  5. 2 Fernando Fonseca
  6. 10 Rafael Barbosa
  7. 22 Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo
  8. 88 Rúben Pina
  9. 9 Bica
  10. 35 B. Rochez

Bench: Salvador Agra, Miguel Sousa, Alysson Silva, Simãozinho, Arthur Baggio, Luccas Feitosa, S. Commey, Kaique, Paulinho, João Assunção

Chaves lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 João Valido
  2. 3 Aarón Romero
  3. 34 Ricardo Alves
  4. 29 M. Tounkara
  5. 23 Léo Alabá
  6. 10 André Rodrigues
  7. 42 Aílson Tavares
  8. 19 Gilberto García
  9. 30 Costinha
  10. 7 R. Esajas

Bench: A. Herbert, Bruno Rodrigues, Kiko Vilas Boas, João Teixeira, Marcos Maia, D. Yearwood, Roberto, J. Mendes, Tiago Simões, M. Gudžulić, GB

Leixoes vs Chaves head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Leixoes 2 · draws 4 · Chaves 2.

LeixoesDrawsChaves
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-09Chaves1-2LeixoesSegunda Liga
2025-11-16Leixoes0-1ChavesSegunda Liga
2025-01-25Leixoes0-0ChavesSegunda Liga
2024-08-18Chaves0-0LeixoesSegunda Liga
2022-01-24Leixoes1-1ChavesSegunda Liga
2021-08-16Chaves1-1LeixoesSegunda Liga
2021-05-15Chaves3-1LeixoesSegunda Liga
2021-01-16Leixoes1-0ChavesSegunda Liga

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match