Updated

Segunda Liga · Matchday 11

Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa

· Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel· Referee Antonio Nobre

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Penafiel to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PenafielDrawLusitânia Lourosa

Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePenafielDrawLusitânia Lourosa
Model47%26%27%
Market40%30%30%
Published42%29%29%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Penafiel, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-10.

Opened 2.30Now 2.27 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Penafiel2.302.27-0.03
Draw2.903.00+0.10
Lusitânia Lourosa3.193.02-0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.68Penafiel
1.23Lusitânia Lourosa
Total expected goals
2.91
Attack rating (Penafiel / Lusitânia Lourosa)
1.46 / 1.14
Defence rating (Penafiel / Lusitânia Lourosa)
0.92 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 5.6% 4.1% 1.7% 0.7% 1 8.0% 12.4% 6.9% 2.8% 1.1% 2 7.7% 9.5% 5.8% 2.4% 1.0% 3 4.3% 5.3% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 2.6% 3.2% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Penafiel goals. Columns: Lusitânia Lourosa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Penafiel42%2.41
Draw29%3.42
Lusitânia Lourosa29%3.42
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.80
Under 2.545%2.25
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.71
No41%2.42
Double chance1X (Penafiel or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Lusitânia Lourosa)58%1.71
Handicap -1Penafiel win by 2+25%3.94
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa recent form

Penafiel 4W 0D 2L
Lusitânia Lourosa 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Penafiel at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Lusitânia Lourosa away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Penafiel at home only, Lusitânia Lourosa away only.

Expected lineups

Penafiel lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 Miguel Oliveira
  2. 3 Cláudio Silva
  3. 6 Adrián Pica
  4. 5 Jaime Sánchez
  5. 22 Martim Alberto
  6. 21 Pedro Sá
  7. 17 João Pinto
  8. 7 Douglas Borel
  9. 33 Ricardo Schutte
  10. 9 Max Svensson
  11. 50 Francisco Varela

Bench: João Miguel, Àlex Carbonell, Davo, Alexei Rojas Fedorushchenko, Eric Puerto, Jorge Meré, Gonçalo Negrão, M. Ramon, Claudio

Lusitânia Lourosa lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 29 Brian Araújo
  2. 52 F. Machado
  3. 42 Guilherme Soares
  4. 4 D. Collard
  5. 24 Ricardinho
  6. 27 Fabinho
  7. 20 Diogo Paulo
  8. 88 Miguel Teixeira
  9. 19 Saliou

Bench: Gabriel Souza, Silvério, António Montez, João Silva, André Ricardo, M. Tablante, Arsénio, Luís Rocha, João Santos, Paulité, Bruno Faria

Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Penafiel 1 · draws 1 · Lusitânia Lourosa 0.

PenafielDrawsLusitânia Lourosa
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-16Penafiel2-0Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
2025-09-13Lusitânia Lourosa0-0PenafielSegunda Liga

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match