Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa preview
In the fixture between Feirense and Lusitânia Lourosa, the 1X2 probabilities show Feirense at 13%, a draw at 27%, and Lusitânia Lourosa at 60%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 16% chance. Feirense has struggled recently, with 6 matches without a win, while Lusitânia Lourosa has shown better form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches.
The expected goals are 0.62 for Feirense and 1.61 for Lusitânia Lourosa, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors. However, the model suggests only a 38% chance for both teams to score and the same percentage for Over 2.5 goals. If Feirense can improve their attacking performance, they could challenge Lusitânia Lourosa’s recent dominance.
Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa: model vs market
| Source | Feirense | Draw | Lusitânia Lourosa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 28% | 61% |
| Market | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Published | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| Edge | -5% | 0% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.54.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lusitânia Lourosa below our published probability: +5.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +10.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lusitânia Lourosa, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense | 2.77 | 2.76 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.12 | +0.02 |
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 2.46 | 2.48 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Feirense and Lusitânia Lourosa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.07
- Attack rating (Feirense / Lusitânia Lourosa)
- 0.48 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Feirense / Lusitânia Lourosa)
- 1.03 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Feirense goals. Columns: Lusitânia Lourosa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Feirense | 28% | 3.57 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.95 |
| No | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Feirense or draw) | 57% | 1.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Lusitânia Lourosa) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusitânia Lourosa win by 2+ | 33% | 3.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Feirense and Lusitânia Lourosa recent form
Feirense
0W 1D 5L
Lusitânia Lourosa
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Feirense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lusitânia Lourosa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Feirense at home only, Lusitânia Lourosa away only.
Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Feirense 0 · draws 0 · Lusitânia Lourosa 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 1-0 | Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-09-28 | Feirense | 1-2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- AVS vs Vizela 2026-11-06
- Felgueiras 1932 v Leixoes — match page 2026-11-07
- Chaves vs Penafiel — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Academica v Amarante — match page 2026-11-07
- FC Porto B vs Portimonense — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Farense vs Benfica B 2026-11-08
- Sporting CP B vs Tondela 2026-11-08
- Torreense vs União de Leiria — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Feirense, previous: Penafiel v Feirense analysis
- Lusitânia Lourosa, previous: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense: odds and pick
- Lusitânia Lourosa, next: Vitória de Sernache – Lusitânia Lourosa, 2026-11-22