Sporting CP B vs Tondela preview
The match between Sporting CP B and Tondela has a 35% chance for both teams to win, with a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. Sporting CP B has an expected goals figure of 1.30, while Tondela's is slightly lower at 1.20.
Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, the recent form shows Sporting CP B with three wins in their last six matches, while Tondela has won five out of six. This could influence the outcome, making it possible for the expected goals to change based on performance on the day.
Sporting CP B vs Tondela: model vs market
| Source | Sporting CP B | Draw | Tondela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Published | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sporting CP B vs Tondela odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tondela, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP B | 2.72 | 2.89 | +0.17 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.20 | +0.10 |
| Tondela | 2.53 | 2.33 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sporting CP B and Tondela expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Sporting CP B / Tondela)
- 1.13 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Sporting CP B / Tondela)
- 0.75 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting CP B vs Tondela score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting CP B goals. Columns: Tondela goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting CP B vs Tondela goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting CP B vs Tondela
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting CP B | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Tondela | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting CP B or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Tondela) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tondela win by 2+ | 14% | 7.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sporting CP B and Tondela recent form
Sporting CP B
5W 0D 1L
Tondela
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sporting CP B at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tondela away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting CP B at home only, Tondela away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- AVS vs Vizela 2026-11-06
- Felgueiras 1932 v Leixoes — match page 2026-11-07
- Chaves vs Penafiel — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Academica v Amarante — match page 2026-11-07
- Feirense v Lusitânia Lourosa — match page 2026-11-08
- FC Porto B vs Portimonense — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Farense vs Benfica B 2026-11-08
- Torreense vs União de Leiria — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Sporting CP B, previous: Leixoes vs Sporting CP B: odds and pick
- Tondela, previous: Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 prediction
- Tondela, next: AVS vs Tondela prediction