Academica vs Amarante preview
In the match between Academica and Amarante, the 1X2 probabilities show Academica at 57%, while Amarante is at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Academica's expected goals of 2.13 compared to Amarante's 1.21.
However, the recent form suggests some unpredictability. Academica has a mixed recent record of W-W-W-W-L-L, while Amarante shows W-L-L-L-W-D. With a confidence grade of C, factors like a sudden change in form or defensive errors could affect the outcome, impacting predictions for Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 63%.
Academica vs Amarante: model vs market
| Source | Academica | Draw | Amarante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Academica below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Academica vs Amarante odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Academica, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Academica | 1.98 | 2.05 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.37 | 3.30 | -0.07 |
| Amarante | 3.58 | 3.43 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Academica and Amarante expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (Academica / Amarante)
- 1.45 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Academica / Amarante)
- 1.09 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Academica vs Amarante score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Academica goals. Columns: Amarante goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Academica vs Amarante goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Academica vs Amarante
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academica | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Amarante | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Academica or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Amarante) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Academica win by 2+ | 32% | 3.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Academica and Amarante recent form
Academica
4W 0D 2L
Amarante
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Academica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Amarante away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Academica at home only, Amarante away only.
Academica vs Amarante head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Academica 1 · draws 2 · Amarante 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Academica | 3-2 | Amarante | Taça de Portugal |
| 2026-04-12 | Academica | 1-1 | Amarante | Liga 3 |
| 2026-03-29 | Amarante | 1-1 | Academica | Liga 3 |
| 2023-10-22 | Amarante | 1-0 | Academica | Taça de Portugal |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- AVS vs Vizela 2026-11-06
- Felgueiras 1932 v Leixoes — match page 2026-11-07
- Chaves vs Penafiel — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Feirense v Lusitânia Lourosa — match page 2026-11-08
- FC Porto B vs Portimonense — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Farense vs Benfica B 2026-11-08
- Sporting CP B vs Tondela 2026-11-08
- Torreense vs União de Leiria — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Academica, previous: Vizela vs Academica prediction
- Academica, next: Sanjoanense v Academica analysis
- Amarante, previous: Amarante v FC Porto B analysis