Amarante vs FC Porto B preview
In the fixture between Amarante and FC Porto B, the 1X2 probabilities show Amarante at 48% to win, while both teams share 26% for a draw and for FC Porto B. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to our model.
Amarante has an expected goals figure of 1.69 compared to FC Porto B's 1.18, suggesting a stronger attacking performance. However, the recent form of both teams could influence the outcome; Amarante's last five matches show 2 wins and 3 losses, while FC Porto B has 2 wins and 3 losses as well. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 55%, and both teams to score is at 58%, indicating potential for a high-scoring game.
Amarante vs FC Porto B: model vs market
| Source | Amarante | Draw | FC Porto B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.18.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Amarante and FC Porto B expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Amarante / FC Porto B)
- 1.05 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Amarante / FC Porto B)
- 1.16 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Amarante vs FC Porto B score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Amarante goals. Columns: FC Porto B goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Amarante vs FC Porto B goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Amarante vs FC Porto B
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Amarante | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| FC Porto B | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Amarante or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Porto B) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Amarante win by 2+ | 25% | 4.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Amarante and FC Porto B recent form
Amarante
2W 1D 3L
FC Porto B
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Amarante at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Porto B away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Amarante at home only, FC Porto B away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Portimonense v Torreense — match page 2026-10-31
- Leixoes vs Sporting CP B — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Benfica B vs Chaves 2026-10-31
- União de Leiria v AVS — match page 2026-10-31
- Vizela vs Academica 2026-11-01
- Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Amarante, previous: Torreense – Amarante, 2026-10-26
- FC Porto B, previous: FC Porto B v União de Leiria analysis