Benfica B vs Chaves preview
In the Segunda Liga fixture, Benfica B faces Chaves with 41% probability for a home win, while both a draw and an away win sit at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance. Benfica B has an expected goals tally of 1.35 compared to Chaves' 1.11, indicating a slight edge in attacking potential.
However, the recent form suggests a potential challenge for Benfica B, with only 1 win in their last 6 matches. Chaves, on the other hand, has been more consistent, winning 4 of their last 6 games. This could impact the outcome, making it possible for Chaves to secure a result despite the statistical edge for Benfica B. The model also shows a 51% likelihood for both teams to score and a 45% chance for Over 2.5 goals.
Benfica B vs Chaves: model vs market
| Source | Benfica B | Draw | Chaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Published | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Benfica B vs Chaves odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Benfica B, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica B | 2.34 | 2.34 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Chaves | 2.79 | 2.79 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Benfica B and Chaves expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Benfica B / Chaves)
- 0.80 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Benfica B / Chaves)
- 0.80 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Benfica B vs Chaves score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Benfica B goals. Columns: Chaves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Benfica B vs Chaves goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Benfica B vs Chaves
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica B | 40% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Chaves | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Benfica B or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Chaves) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica B win by 2+ | 20% | 5.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Benfica B and Chaves recent form
Benfica B
2W 2D 2L
Chaves
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Benfica B at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chaves away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Benfica B at home only, Chaves away only.
Benfica B vs Chaves head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Benfica B 1 · draws 1 · Chaves 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Benfica B | 1-0 | Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-08-10 | Chaves | 1-1 | Benfica B | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Amarante vs FC Porto B — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Portimonense v Torreense — match page 2026-10-31
- Leixoes vs Sporting CP B — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- União de Leiria v AVS — match page 2026-10-31
- Vizela vs Academica 2026-11-01
- Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Benfica B, previous: Feirense v Benfica B analysis
- Chaves, previous: Chaves vs Vizela: odds and pick