Farense vs Benfica B preview
In the match between Farense and Benfica B, the 1X2 probabilities show Farense at 44%, which suggests they have the edge. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance. Farense's expected goals stand at 1.31, while Benfica B's is lower at 0.93, indicating a potential struggle for the visitors to find the net.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. The likelihood of both teams to score is 46%, suggesting there is a reasonable chance that Benfica B could find a goal. Additionally, recent form shows Farense has been strong with four wins in their last five matches, while Benfica B has been inconsistent, winning only two of their last five games.
Farense vs Benfica B: model vs market
| Source | Farense | Draw | Benfica B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | -3% | +2% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Farense vs Benfica B odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Farense, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farense | 1.70 | 1.70 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.73 | -0.02 |
| Benfica B | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Farense and Benfica B expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.19
- Attack rating (Farense / Benfica B)
- 1.21 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Farense / Benfica B)
- 0.87 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Farense vs Benfica B score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Farense goals. Columns: Benfica B goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Farense vs Benfica B goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Farense vs Benfica B
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farense | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Benfica B | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Farense or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Benfica B) | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Farense win by 2+ | 19% | 5.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Farense and Benfica B recent form
Farense
4W 1D 1L
Benfica B
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Farense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Benfica B away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Farense at home only, Benfica B away only.
Farense vs Benfica B head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Farense 1 · draws 0 · Benfica B 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Benfica B | 1-0 | Farense | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-11-02 | Farense | 4-3 | Benfica B | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- AVS vs Vizela 2026-11-06
- Felgueiras 1932 v Leixoes — match page 2026-11-07
- Chaves vs Penafiel — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Academica v Amarante — match page 2026-11-07
- Feirense v Lusitânia Lourosa — match page 2026-11-08
- FC Porto B vs Portimonense — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Sporting CP B vs Tondela 2026-11-08
- Torreense vs União de Leiria — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Farense, previous: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense: odds and pick
- Farense, next: Farense v Fátima analysis
- Benfica B, previous: Benfica B – Chaves, 2026-10-31