Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes preview
Felgueiras 1932 faces Leixoes with a 45% chance of winning and a predicted scoreline of 2-1, which occurs with a 9% likelihood. Felgueiras has managed 1.60 expected goals, while Leixoes has 1.21. The model suggests a 53% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score.
Felgueiras' recent form shows L-D-W-L-W-L, while Leixoes has struggled with L-L-L-L-W-D. Despite Felgueiras having a higher winning probability, their head-to-head record is concerning, as they have 0 wins against Leixoes, who have 2 wins in their last 2 encounters. This could impact the outcome, making the match less predictable.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes: model vs market
| Source | Felgueiras 1932 | Draw | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market | 37% | 29% | 33% |
| Published | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Felgueiras 1932 below our published probability: +2.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Felgueiras 1932, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Felgueiras 1932 | 2.66 | 2.48 | -0.19 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.12 | +0.02 |
| Leixoes | 2.58 | 2.74 | +0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Felgueiras 1932 and Leixoes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Felgueiras 1932 / Leixoes)
- 1.07 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Felgueiras 1932 / Leixoes)
- 1.00 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Felgueiras 1932 goals. Columns: Leixoes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Felgueiras 1932 | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Leixoes | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Felgueiras 1932 or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Leixoes) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Felgueiras 1932 win by 2+ | 24% | 4.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Felgueiras 1932 and Leixoes recent form
Felgueiras 1932
2W 1D 3L
Leixoes
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Felgueiras 1932 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Leixoes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Felgueiras 1932 at home only, Leixoes away only.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Felgueiras 1932 1 · draws 1 · Leixoes 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Felgueiras 1932 | 0-1 | Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-08-10 | Leixoes | 3-0 | Felgueiras 1932 | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-04-18 | Felgueiras 1932 | 4-0 | Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| 2024-12-07 | Leixoes | 2-2 | Felgueiras 1932 | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- FC Porto B vs Portimonense — team news & stats 2026-11-08
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Before and after this match
- Felgueiras 1932, previous: Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 prediction
- Felgueiras 1932, next: Estoril – Felgueiras 1932, 2026-11-21
- Leixoes, previous: Leixoes vs Sporting CP B: odds and pick